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Will the House vote to ban members of Congress from trading stocks?
kalshi

Will the House vote to ban members of Congress from trading stocks?

Volume:
$37,658

Before 2027

 - Kalshi

Before 2027 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 27, 2026

Closed: Jul 27, 2:17 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before 2027

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,226
N/A
N/A
$11,523
3mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

Before July 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,432
N/A
N/A
$6,209
3mo 3d
No
Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks whether Congress will pass legislation banning members from purchasing individual stocks before January 1, 2027, with exceptions potentially allowed for blind trusts and diversified investments like ETFs or mutual funds. On Kalshi, the probability of passage before the January 1, 2027 deadline stands at 31.0%, while the likelihood of passage by the earlier July 1, 2026 milestone is 11.0%. Resolution will be determined by whether qualifying legislation actually passes the House during this window. Watch for legislative action around the July 1, 2026 checkpoint, as movement toward that earlier date would signal meaningful momentum for the ban.

Kalshi

A Congressional stock trading ban resolves to Yes if passed by the House after issuance and before the specified deadline. The ban may still permit members to place stocks in blind trusts or invest in diversified assets like ETFs and mutual funds while satisfying the resolution criteria. Two separate deadlines are tracked: July 1, 2026, and January 1, 2027, with the market resolving Yes upon the first passage meeting either threshold.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether the House votes on legislation that prohibits members of Congress from purchasing stocks, with allowances for blind trusts or diversified assets such as ETFs and mutual funds, before the deadline. The specific legislative language and scope—particularly the inclusion or exclusion of blind trust provisions—will be central to determining whether the resolution criteria are met. Traders should monitor congressional calendars and committee activity as the deadline approaches.

Key catalysts include committee votes advancing stock-trading ban legislation, leadership statements on floor scheduling, and high-profile insider-trading scandals involving members of Congress. Media coverage of wealth accumulation by lawmakers or enforcement actions by the SEC could shift trader sentiment. Changes in congressional composition following elections or shifts in party priorities around ethics reform would also influence odds. Floor debate announcements, amendments affecting blind trust language, and statements from key committee chairs represent near-term signals that could trigger significant price movement.