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406,019
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September 30
- Polymarket
September 30 - Polymarket
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Vol.
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Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Closed: Sep 29, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Russian forces will capture any territory in Shevchenko, Donetsk Oblast, as indicated by the ISW Ukraine map. On Polymarket, the probability that Russia enters Shevchenko by June 30, 2026 stands at 17.0%, while the probability of entry by May 31, 2026 is 6.5%. Resolution will be determined by the ISW map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary source if needed. Watch for updates to the ISW daily map cycle, as any qualifying Russian control must persist through the next full update to count toward resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Shevchenko, Donetsk Oblast, (48.384157880601364° N, 37.10809761679785° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus and typically incorporate faster-moving information than traditional analyst forecasts. While institutional analysts may publish periodic assessments of Russian military movements and intentions, prediction markets aggregate continuous updates from participants with financial stakes in the outcome. This event's market activity suggests traders are actively pricing in geopolitical developments, though direct analyst consensus figures on this specific scenario may be limited or delayed.
Key catalysts include official military announcements from Russia or Ukraine, confirmed troop movements reported by independent observers, diplomatic escalations or peace negotiations, NATO or international responses, and intelligence assessments from credible sources. Changes in regional military positioning, supply line activity, or strategic communications could shift trader expectations. Economic sanctions, weapons shipments, or shifts in international support for either party may also influence market pricing as participants reassess the probability of Russian entry into Shevchenko before the deadline.