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Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?

Jun 30, 2026, 1:19 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$63,332
Volume 24h:
$702
3,405%
Liquidity:
$1,371
47%
Open interest:
$3,510N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?

21%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 22¢ buys you 455 shares | Odds: 21% Total Payout: $455 | Net Profit: $355 Multiplier: 4.55x | ROI: 355% APY not meaningful 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
21%
1%
Yes 22¢No 81¢
3¢
$1,371
$21,303
0.08%
2%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42,029
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (50.335310° N, 36.195107° E) located in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (50.335310° N, 36.195107° E) located in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Kozacha Lopan capture market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume stands at $16, contributing to a total volume of $63,332 for this market. Users can view how the implied probability of Russia capturing Kozacha Lopan has shifted over time, and analyze recent trading activity to understand market sentiment. The dashboard provides a clear visualization of how traders are assessing the likelihood of this geopolitical event.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While expert opinions often place probabilities on geopolitical events, this market provides a real-time, incentivized assessment from a diverse group of traders. Currently, the implied probability differs from many publicly available analyst predictions regarding the potential for Russia to capture Kozacha Lopan. This divergence highlights how the wisdom of the crowd, as expressed through this market, can offer a unique perspective on complex geopolitical scenarios.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Russia will capture Kozacha Lopan. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and evolving perspectives on the conflict. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market constantly reflects the latest collective assessment of the situation.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established and maintains control of Kozacha Lopan by the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by publicly available information and evidence, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the situation. Traders should monitor developments closely as the resolution date approaches to understand the potential impact on this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major military offensives or counteroffensives in the Kharkiv region would be key catalysts. Significant changes in the intensity of fighting, territorial gains or losses, or shifts in Russian military strategy could all impact trader sentiment. Political developments, such as diplomatic negotiations or escalatory rhetoric, could also influence the market. Additionally, reports from reliable sources detailing troop movements or battlefield conditions would likely cause price fluctuations in this market.