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Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
polymarket

Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?

May 21, 2026, 2:09 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$54,663
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$1,213
0%
Open interest:
$975N/A

Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?

 - Polymarket

Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? - Polymarket

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?

7%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 9¢ buys you 1,111 shares | Odds: 7% Total Payout: $1,111 | Net Profit: $1,011 Multiplier: 11.11x | ROI: 1,011% APY not meaningful 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?

Trade
7%
Yes 9¢No 95¢
4¢
$1,213
$54,663
0%
0.01%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova1.png Intersection Location in Borova: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova2.png Borova Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Borova3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Borova capture market tracks the current odds of Russia capturing Borova by December 31, 2026. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probability has changed over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $5. The total volume traded on this market to date is $54,663. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to the potential capture of Borova.

Currently, the implied probability on Polymarket suggests a relatively low chance of Russia capturing Borova by Jan 1, 2027. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which vary widely depending on their assessment of the ongoing conflict and Ukrainian defensive capabilities. While some analysts predict a continued stalemate, others anticipate potential Russian gains, but generally not a full capture of Borova within the timeframe of this market. It’s important to note that prediction market odds represent the collective wisdom of traders, while analyst forecasts are individual opinions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Russia will capture Borova by Jan 1, 2027. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. Currently, the top outcome has a chance percentage of 7.0%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Borova is under full and sustained military control by Russian forces before the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by assessing available evidence from reputable news sources, governmental reports, and independent observers to establish whether the specified condition has been met. The market will then settle based on this verified information.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in the military situation on the ground, such as a substantial Ukrainian counteroffensive or a significant Russian breakthrough, would likely cause price fluctuations. Political developments, including changes in international support for Ukraine or shifts in Russian strategy, could also move the market. Additionally, reports of significant troop movements, changes in command, or major battlefield losses on either side could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.