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Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...?

Volume:
$262,206

May 31

 - Polymarket

May 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 30, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

May 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
2.5¢
N/A
$166,699
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$42,679
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,828
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether Russian forces will achieve complete control over the municipality of Hryshyne in Donetsk Oblast, as indicated by full red shading on the ISW Ukraine map. On Polymarket, the probability that Russia captures all of Hryshyne by June 30, 2026 stands at 59.0%, while the probability of capture by May 31, 2026 is 24.5%. Resolution will be determined by the ISW map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary source if needed. Watch for any persistent red shading across the entire municipality boundary on the ISW daily update cycle, as this will trigger resolution by the June 30, 2026 deadline.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether Russia has captured all of Hryshyne by the specified deadline. The outcome is determined by verifiable evidence of territorial control at the time of resolution. Until that date, traders can adjust positions based on battlefield developments, ceasefire announcements, or other geopolitical shifts. The binary nature of the market means the outcome will be either yes or no, with payouts distributed accordingly to holders of the winning side.

Key catalysts include major military offensives or retreats in the Hryshyne area, ceasefire announcements or peace negotiations, changes in Western military aid to Ukraine, and tactical shifts in Russian strategy. Battlefield reports, satellite imagery, and official statements from Ukrainian or Russian military sources can trigger sharp price movements. Diplomatic developments—such as negotiations or international pressure—may also influence trader expectations. Additionally, supply-line disruptions, personnel changes in military leadership, or shifts in global geopolitical alignment could reshape the probability of Russian territorial capture before Jun 30, 2026.