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Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

May 21, 2026, 1:42 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$153,933
Volume 24h:
$676
71%
Liquidity:
$3,861
38%
Open interest:
$23,167N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

36%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 36¢ buys you 278 shares | Odds: 36% Total Payout: $278 | Net Profit: $178 Multiplier: 2.78x | ROI: 178% APY not meaningful 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
36%
1%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
1¢
$3,861
$75,290
0.22%
10%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78,644
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Chasiv Yar capture market tracks the current odds of Russia fully capturing the city by the resolution date, along with the total volume traded, which currently stands at $153,933. You can also view the 24-hour volume, currently $168, to gauge recent trading activity. The dashboard provides a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has priced in new information over time. This allows traders to monitor sentiment and potential shifts in expectations regarding the conflict in Ukraine.

Currently, the implied probability on Polymarket suggests a significant likelihood of Russia capturing Chasiv Yar. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts that express greater uncertainty regarding the timeframe and potential for a protracted conflict. However, it's important to note that analyst predictions often rely on different methodologies and information sets than those incorporated by traders in this market. The collective judgment of traders often reflects real-time assessments of battlefield dynamics and geopolitical factors, potentially offering a more up-to-date perspective than static reports.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market's assessment of the likelihood of Russia fully capturing Chasiv Yar, influenced by factors like reported military advancements, logistical challenges, and broader strategic considerations. Volume and open interest also play a role in price discovery.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Russia has established full military control over all of Chasiv Yar, as determined by independent and reliable sources. The focus is on complete control, meaning no significant Ukrainian military presence remains within the city limits. The resolution will be based on publicly available information and will not rely on any single source or subjective interpretation.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major Ukrainian counteroffensives or successful defensive actions could decrease the probability of a Russian capture, while substantial Russian gains and breakthroughs could increase it. Changes in the supply of Western military aid to Ukraine, or shifts in Russian military strategy, would also be key signals. Furthermore, any credible reports of significant troop movements, logistical disruptions, or high-level political negotiations could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.