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Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
December 31
- Polymarket
December 31 - Polymarket
81%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 16
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 23
Aug 23
Vol.
$1.6k
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in World
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Russian forces will achieve complete control of Chasiv Yar, a municipality in Donetsk Oblast, by the end of 2024. On Polymarket, the probability of full Russian capture by December 31 stands at 43.5%, while capture by September 30 is priced at 20.5%. Resolution will be determined by the ISW Ukraine map, which must show the entire municipality shaded red indicating Russian control, with any shading persisting through the next full ISW daily update cycle to qualify. Watch the ISW map updates through December 31, 2024 for confirmation of complete Russian territorial control over the municipality.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/XPJfnzoeRtB7UEmDA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader consensus and differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on geopolitical expertise and military assessments. Markets incorporate fast-moving battlefield intelligence and trader conviction, while analysts typically publish longer-form reports with qualitative reasoning. The market's current pricing suggests traders assign a specific probability to Russian capture by the deadline, whereas independent analysts may emphasize uncertainty, logistical constraints, or Ukrainian defensive capacity differently. Direct comparison requires consulting recent reports from conflict analysts and think tanks.
On Polymarket, the top outcome—Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?—is priced at 80.0%. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This reflects the collective belief of traders that Russian forces will secure complete control of Chasiv Yar within that timeframe. The price is determined by continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers negotiate contract values between 0 and 1 dollar. Higher prices indicate stronger market confidence in capture; lower prices suggest skepticism. Volume and bid-ask spreads reveal liquidity and conviction strength among participants.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether Russia has captured all of Chasiv Yar—meaning full territorial control of the city—by that date. The determination relies on verified reports from credible news sources, military assessments, and on-the-ground confirmation. Markets typically require clear, documented evidence that Russian forces hold the entire city and that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn or been defeated. Ambiguous or contested control scenarios may trigger extended review periods before final settlement.
Major catalysts include battlefield advances or retreats, casualty reports, weapons deliveries to Ukraine, diplomatic negotiations, and seasonal weather changes affecting military operations. Announcements of new Russian offensives, Ukrainian counterattacks, or shifts in NATO support could sharply alter odds. Ceasefire proposals or peace talks may reduce capture probability, while Russian breakthroughs increase it. Intelligence reports on troop deployments, supply lines, and fortification status also drive repricing. Media coverage of specific tactical developments in and around Chasiv Yar will likely trigger immediate market reactions as traders update their capture-by-deadline assessments.