TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Will RH Q1 revenue be above __?
polymarket

Will RH Q1 revenue be above __?

Volume:
$718

$800M

 - Polymarket

$800M - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 11:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$800M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
3¢
N/A
$314
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$750M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$229
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$850M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks whether RH will report GAAP net revenues exceeding $750 million for its first fiscal quarter of 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome carries a probability of 94.0%. Resolution will be determined by RH's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. Watch for RH's Q1 2026 earnings announcement, expected around June 11, 2026, which will provide the definitive revenue figure needed to settle this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if RH's revenue (GAAP net revenues) for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is RH's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Will RH Q1 revenue be above __? event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that RH's Q1 revenue will exceed the specified threshold, updated as traders buy and sell shares. You can monitor the top outcome's implied chance, historical price movements, and trading volume to understand market sentiment. The dashboard consolidates Polymarket data only, showing you how prediction market participants are pricing this corporate earnings outcome.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money traders' collective expectations for RH's Q1 revenue, while analyst forecasts typically come from equity research reports and consensus earnings estimates. Markets often incorporate forward-looking sentiment and tail-risk pricing that may diverge from published analyst targets. By comparing the implied probability from Polymarket against consensus revenue guidance from financial data providers, you can identify whether traders are pricing in upside or downside relative to professional expectations. This comparison helps contextualize market conviction around the revenue threshold.

The market resolves on Jun 11, 2026. Resolution is determined by RH's official Q1 revenue figure, which is typically disclosed in the company's earnings announcement or SEC filings. The outcome hinges on whether reported revenue meets or exceeds the specified threshold. Traders should monitor RH's earnings calendar and any preliminary revenue guidance to anticipate the resolution date. Once the official figure is published and verified, the market settles based on whether the threshold was crossed.

Key catalysts include RH's preliminary earnings announcements, same-store sales trends, and management commentary on demand. Macroeconomic shifts affecting luxury home furnishings demand—such as interest rate changes, consumer spending patterns, or housing market momentum—can significantly impact revenue expectations. Competitor performance and industry reports on retail trends may also influence trader positioning. Additionally, any guidance updates or forward-looking statements from RH management could prompt repricing. Traders should track earnings calendars, economic data releases, and RH press releases to stay ahead of market moves.