TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 29, 9:04 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Procter & Gamble is estimated to release earnings on July 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Procter & Gamble’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.41 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Procter & Gamble reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.41 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Procter & Gamble releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Procter & Gamble is estimated to release earnings on July 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Procter & Gamble’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.41 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Procter & Gamble reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.41 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Procter & Gamble releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they reflect different methodologies and incentives. Analysts publish consensus estimates based on financial models and company guidance, while prediction market participants stake real capital on outcomes, creating a direct financial penalty for inaccuracy. This market prices in not only the consensus earnings target but also tail risks, sentiment shifts, and late-breaking developments that analysts may not fully capture. Comparing the two can reveal whether traders expect a larger or smaller beat than the official consensus suggests.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader bets into real-time odds. Buyers of "Yes" contracts profit if PG beats earnings; sellers profit if it does not. The contract price—expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100—reflects the collective probability assigned by the market. As new information emerges or traders adjust their positions, the price adjusts continuously, allowing participants to enter or exit at any time before the market closes.
This market resolves around Jul 29, 2026, once Procter & Gamble's quarterly earnings are publicly announced and verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the company's reported earnings per share or net income against the consensus estimate established before the announcement. If the actual result exceeds the consensus figure, the "Yes" outcome prevails; otherwise, "No" wins. Resolution is confirmed once the earnings data is verifiable from credible public reporting and official company disclosures.
Several catalysts can shift odds before resolution. Macroeconomic data—inflation reports, consumer spending figures, and currency movements—affect expectations for a consumer staples company like PG. Company-specific events, such as management commentary, product recalls, or strategic announcements, can reshape earnings forecasts. Competitor earnings reports and industry trends in household products and personal care also influence sentiment. Finally, revisions to analyst consensus estimates in the weeks leading up to the announcement often trigger sharp repricing as the market incorporates fresh information.