TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 23, 8:08 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, PG&E is estimated to release earnings on July 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for PG&E’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.36 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if PG&E reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.36 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If PG&E releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, PG&E is estimated to release earnings on July 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for PG&E’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.36 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if PG&E reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.36 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If PG&E releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst consensus because they incorporate real-time trader conviction and forward-looking expectations beyond published estimates. While Wall Street analysts issue formal earnings-per-share targets and guidance ranges, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders who have financial incentive to price outcomes accurately. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in a higher or lower probability of an earnings beat than the consensus of professional forecasters, offering a complementary signal for investors evaluating PG&E's near-term performance.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares representing the outcome, and the platform's pricing algorithm adjusts the odds continuously based on order flow and liquidity. The current price reflects the marginal probability that traders assign to PG&E beating earnings, with higher prices indicating stronger conviction in a positive surprise.
This market resolves around Jul 23, 2026, once PG&E's quarterly earnings results are publicly announced and verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the company's reported earnings per share or net income against the consensus estimate for that quarter. Traders who correctly predicted whether the company would beat or miss that benchmark will receive their payout, with the resolution confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting.
Key catalysts include PG&E's pre-earnings guidance updates, macroeconomic data affecting utility demand and operating costs, regulatory developments impacting rates or liabilities, and broader energy market trends. Analyst estimate revisions, management commentary during investor calls, and quarterly operational metrics (customer growth, revenue trends) can shift trader expectations before the earnings announcement. Weather patterns, wildfire-related costs, and California energy policy changes may also influence the company's profitability outlook and move this market materially.