TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?
predict

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Volume:
$556,329

↑$1.1T

 - Predict

↑$1.1T - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

↑$1.1T

View
N/A
N/A
—
$165
$129,633
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

↑$1.0T

N/A
N/A
—
$150
$88,914
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

↑$875B

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$71,269
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

↑$850B

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$65,057
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

↓$800B

N/A
N/A
—
$114
$48,521
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

↓$750B

N/A
N/A
—
$223
$47,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

↑$900B

N/A
N/A
—
$207
$46,128
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

↑$950B

N/A
N/A
—
$81
$29,260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

↑$1.5T

N/A
N/A
—
$2,077
$19,186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

↑$1.25T

N/A
N/A
—
$825
$6,427
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

↓$600B

N/A
N/A
—
$19
$2,898
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

↓$700B

N/A
N/A
—
$1,034
$1,772
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether OpenAI's valuation will reach a specified threshold by June 30 on Predict. It displays the current implied probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and liquidity metrics including total volume of $556,329 and 24-hour volume of $11,270. Traders use this data to monitor market sentiment and execution opportunities as new information about OpenAI's funding rounds, financial performance, and strategic developments emerges.

Prediction market odds on Predict reflect real-time trader consensus and often diverge from traditional analyst valuations. While equity research firms may publish periodic valuation targets based on comparable company analysis and DCF models, prediction markets aggregate continuous information flow and trader conviction through price discovery. The current market-implied probability provides a dynamic alternative to static analyst estimates, capturing evolving views on OpenAI's fundraising trajectory, profitability path, and competitive positioning in the AI sector.

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by whether OpenAI's valuation meets or exceeds the specified threshold as of June 30. Valuation evidence typically includes official funding round announcements, regulatory filings, company statements, and credible third-party valuations. The outcome is binary: either the threshold is reached and the affirmative resolves to 100%, or it is not reached and resolves to zero. Traders should monitor OpenAI's official communications and funding activity closely as the deadline approaches.

Key catalysts include announced funding rounds or secondary market transactions that establish new valuation marks, quarterly financial performance or revenue growth announcements, major product launches or AI capability breakthroughs, regulatory developments affecting AI companies, macroeconomic shifts in venture and growth equity valuations, competitive dynamics with other AI labs, and strategic partnerships or acquisitions. Geopolitical events, changes in AI regulation, and shifts in enterprise AI adoption rates could also influence market expectations. Traders monitor OpenAI's official statements, industry news, and comparable company valuations to adjust positions.