TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?
polymarket

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Volume:
$312,729

↑$875B

 - Polymarket

↑$875B - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑$875B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$36,364
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑$850B

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,798
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑$900B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,431
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑$950B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓$800B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,615
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑$1.5T

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓$600B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,333
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑$1.0T

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,652
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓$750B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,406
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓$700B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,449
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑$1.1T

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,155
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑$1.25T

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,903
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks whether OpenAI's private market valuation will reach $850 billion or higher by the end of June 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome carries a probability of 83.5%. Resolution will be determined by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, with data published daily at 1:00 PM ET on trading days. Watch for any IPO or direct listing announcement before June 30, 2026, as this would shift resolution methodology to include public market capitalization data alongside NPM valuations.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for OpenAI's valuation milestone on Polymarket. It displays the current implied probability that OpenAI will reach the specified valuation threshold by Jul 1, 2026, along with historical price movements and market depth. The dashboard also shows $7,362 in 24-hour trading volume and $312,729 in total group volume, giving you visibility into market liquidity and trader conviction around this corporate valuation event.

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by whether OpenAI's valuation has reached the specified threshold. Resolution is based on verified valuation data from credible sources such as funding announcements, secondary market transactions, or official company statements. Once the resolution criteria are assessed, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on their positions. The binary structure means the market resolves to either yes or no, with no partial outcomes.

Several catalysts could shift market odds before Jul 1, 2026. Major funding rounds or investment announcements directly impact OpenAI's valuation and trader expectations. Product launches, revenue growth milestones, or regulatory developments affecting AI companies influence perceived company value. Competitive dynamics with other AI firms, macroeconomic shifts affecting tech valuations, and changes in investor sentiment toward generative AI also matter. Additionally, any strategic partnerships, acquisitions, or corporate restructuring could alter the trajectory toward the valuation threshold, causing significant repricing on Polymarket.