TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 28, 6:16 PM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, NXP Semiconductors is estimated to release earnings on July 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for NXP Semiconductors’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.53 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NXP Semiconductors reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.53 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If NXP Semiconductors releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, NXP Semiconductors is estimated to release earnings on July 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for NXP Semiconductors’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.53 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NXP Semiconductors reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.53 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If NXP Semiconductors releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they reflect different methodologies. Analysts typically issue earnings estimates based on financial models and company guidance, while traders in this market price outcomes based on collective expectations and real-time information flow. Prediction markets can sometimes anticipate analyst revisions or capture sentiment shifts faster than formal consensus updates. Comparing the current odds to published analyst consensus on NXPI earnings provides insight into whether the market is pricing in a higher or lower probability of a beat than the Street's formal view.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into implied probabilities. As traders buy or sell shares corresponding to a beat or miss outcome, the price adjusts continuously to reflect the aggregate belief. The current odds reflect the cumulative conviction of all participants; higher prices indicate stronger confidence in a beat, while lower prices suggest skepticism. Traders can enter or exit positions at any time before the market resolves, allowing the price to evolve as new earnings-related news or company guidance emerges.
This market resolves around Jul 28, 2026, once NXP Semiconductors reports its quarterly earnings and the results are verified against credible public sources. The outcome hinges on whether the company's reported earnings per share or revenue exceeds the consensus estimate that was in effect at the time of the announcement. Resolution is typically confirmed within days of the earnings release, allowing traders to settle their positions. The market's binary structure means only one outcome—beat or miss—will be confirmed, with no partial resolution.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before resolution. Unexpected macroeconomic data, semiconductor industry trends, or supply chain developments may alter expectations for NXPI's performance. Company-issued guidance updates, management commentary, or analyst revisions can trigger sharp repricing. Broader tech sector earnings surprises or competitor results may also influence trader sentiment about NXP's likely outcome. Additionally, any material news regarding NXPI's key markets—automotive, industrial, or mobile—could move the needle. Traders monitor these signals continuously, adjusting positions as new information emerges closer to the earnings date.