TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 29, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether NVIDIA's stock price will close above $190 on the final trading day of the week ending May 25, 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of NVIDIA finishing above that threshold stands at 99.9%. Resolution will be determined by the official closing price from Yahoo Finance on the last trading day of that week, typically Friday, May 29, 2026. Watch the market close on May 29 to see whether NVDA settles above or below the $190 level.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader conviction and differ from traditional analyst price targets and consensus estimates. While Wall Street analysts publish discrete price forecasts based on fundamental research, prediction markets price in live, dynamic expectations across many participants. The market odds represent a real-money consensus that can diverge from published analyst views, especially during periods of rapid earnings revisions, macro shifts, or semiconductor sector volatility. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more or less bullish than the research consensus.
The market resolves on May 29, 2026, marking the end of the trading week of May 25, 2026. Resolution is determined by NVDA's official closing price on the final trading day of that week. The outcome is binary: if the stock closes at or above the specified price threshold, the affirmative outcome resolves to 100 cents; if below, it resolves to zero. Official exchange data from NASDAQ serves as the settlement source, ensuring transparent and objective determination of the result.
Key catalysts include NVIDIA earnings announcements, data center demand trends, AI adoption rates, and competitive positioning in GPUs and semiconductors. Macroeconomic factors such as interest rate decisions, inflation data, and tech sector rotation also influence the stock. Geopolitical developments affecting chip exports, supply chain disruptions, and major customer guidance updates can trigger sharp moves. Additionally, broader semiconductor index performance, rival earnings, and shifts in AI investment sentiment will shape trader expectations for NVDA's weekly close relative to the target price.