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Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above __ ?
polymarket

Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above __ ?

Volume:
$6,994

$1.0B

 - Polymarket

$1.0B - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$1.0B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$785
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$1.2B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$747
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$1.1B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$1.4B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$1.3B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Nike's Greater China revenue in fiscal Q4 2026 will exceed $1.0 billion, based on the company's official earnings disclosures. On Polymarket, the leading outcome currently stands at 98.0%. Resolution will depend on Nike's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings, with the deadline set for July 31, 2026. Watch for Nike's Q4 2026 earnings announcement around the June 25, 2026 resolution date estimate to determine the final Greater China revenue figure.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NIKE's Greater China revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is NIKE's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above __? market on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and trading volume to help you monitor market sentiment. The dashboard aggregates Polymarket data, showing how traders are pricing NIKE's Greater China Q4 revenue performance relative to specified thresholds. With total group volume of $6,983, this market reflects active trader participation and provides a live window into collective expectations around NIKE's performance in one of its most strategically important regions.

The market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 25, 2026, following NIKE's official Q4 earnings announcement and disclosure of Greater China revenue figures. Resolution hinges on whether reported Q4 Greater China revenue meets or exceeds the specified threshold. NIKE typically reports quarterly results in late June, providing the definitive data needed to settle the market. Traders should monitor NIKE's investor relations announcements and SEC filings for the exact revenue figure. The outcome is binary: if actual Q4 Greater China revenue is at or above the threshold, the affirmative resolves to 100%; otherwise it resolves to zero.

Key catalysts include NIKE's quarterly earnings guidance updates, China macroeconomic data (GDP, consumer spending, retail sales), currency movements affecting USD-denominated revenue, competitive actions by Adidas or local brands, and consumer demand signals from retail partners. Geopolitical developments—such as tariff changes or trade policy shifts—could impact Greater China profitability and reported revenue. NIKE management commentary on China market recovery, inventory levels, and pricing power will influence trader expectations. Additionally, broader luxury and sportswear sector trends, Chinese New Year sales performance, and any supply chain disruptions may shift market odds as traders reassess the likelihood of exceeding the revenue threshold by quarter-end.