TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 24, 4:37 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NFLX%2FUSD.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they reflect real-money commitments from traders rather than consensus estimates. While equity analysts publish weekly or monthly outlooks based on fundamental research, this market prices Netflix's movement continuously as new information emerges. Traders betting on a specific weekly outcome may incorporate earnings whispers, technical levels, or macro sentiment faster than formal analyst revisions. Comparing the two can reveal whether the crowd is more or less bullish than the research consensus on near-term momentum.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Shares representing "yes" (above the threshold) and "no" (at or below) trade continuously, with the price of each reflecting the crowd's aggregate belief. As traders accumulate positions, the odds shift; heavy buying pushes the yes-price higher, while selling pressure lowers it. The final price at market close represents the last consensus before resolution.
This market resolves around Jul 24, 2026, once the trading week concludes and Netflix's closing price is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing NFLX's official closing price on the final trading day of that week against the specified threshold. Shares held by traders are redeemed at full value if the outcome matches their position, or expire worthless if it does not. Resolution is typically confirmed within hours of market close.
Netflix earnings announcements, subscriber growth reports, or guidance revisions can trigger sharp moves in this market. Broader market events—such as Federal Reserve policy shifts, tech sector rallies, or streaming industry news—also influence trader positioning. Analyst upgrades or downgrades, changes in content strategy, or competitive pressures from rivals may shift conviction about the stock's weekly trajectory. Technical levels, options expiration, and short-term momentum can amplify volatility, causing odds to swing significantly in the final days before settlement.