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Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
limitless
polymarket

Will Netanyahu visit New York City?

Volume:
$461,567

September 30

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 2:26 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

September 30

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$203,144
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 8h 49m
Yes
limitless

September 30

View
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

December 31

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$102,053
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
Yes
limitless

December 31

View
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$153,917
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

August 31

View
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visiting New York City by a specified date. Currently, the consensus probability across Limitless and Polymarket is 100% that he will visit by September 30, and also 100% that he will visit by December 31. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, with a visit defined as physical presence within the five boroughs. Keep an eye on the United Nations General Assembly, scheduled to begin September 17, 2024, as a potential catalyst for a visit.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Limitless markets share identical resolution criteria regarding what constitutes a 'visit' and the sources used for resolution.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • Netanyahu must physically enter one of the five boroughs of New York City.
  • Landing at a New York City airport only counts as a visit if Netanyahu leaves the airport.
  • Transit through airspace or territorial waters does not qualify as a visit.
  • Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Ambiguous Reporting: If reports are conflicting or unclear about whether Netanyahu fully entered a borough, the auditor will prioritize reports from highly reputable news organizations with on-the-ground sources.
  • Airport Transit Only: If Netanyahu lands at an airport but immediately departs without entering any of the five boroughs, the market will resolve to 'No'.
Timing: Markets will resolve upon confirmation of a qualifying visit (or lack thereof) by a consensus of credible reporting, up to and including the specified resolution date and time (11:59 PM ET).Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A “visit” refers to Netanyahu physically entering any of the five boroughs of New York City: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, or Staten Island. Entering New York City’s territorial waters will not qualify. Merely transiting through New York City airspace will not qualify. Landing at any airport within New York City will qualify only if Netanyahu leaves the airport. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A “visit” refers to Netanyahu physically entering any of the five boroughs of New York City: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, or Staten Island. Entering New York City’s territorial waters will not qualify. Merely transiting through New York City airspace will not qualify. Landing at any airport within New York City will qualify only if Netanyahu leaves the airport. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a more accurate forecast than traditional polling averages. Polls rely on self-reported data and are susceptible to biases, such as social desirability. Prediction markets, conversely, incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs through financial stakes. While polls gauge stated opinions, this market reflects what people are willing to bet on. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can sometimes be significant, particularly on politically charged events. This provides a unique perspective on potential outcomes.

Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Limitless on the Netanyahu New York visit market can occur due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and differing opinions on the underlying event. Polymarket currently favors a visit, while Limitless currently shows less conviction. These differences reflect the unique risk appetites and information sets of each platform’s user base. Additionally, variations in trading fees and market-making activity on each platform can contribute to price divergence, even when tracking the same event.

Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market. Any official announcements regarding a planned trip by Benjamin Netanyahu would be a major catalyst. Geopolitical developments, particularly those affecting US-Israel relations, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected political events within Israel, such as a change in government or a major policy shift, might also impact the likelihood of a visit. Finally, significant media coverage or reports regarding Netanyahu’s travel plans could drive movement in this market, as traders react to new information.