TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 12:08 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Nauru will officially change its name to Naoero through a constitutional referendum. On Kalshi, the probability that voters will approve the name change stands at 83.0%. Resolution hinges on the outcome of the Nauruan constitutional referendum, as determined by official government sources. The referendum represents a significant cultural and political moment for the island nation, with the final result expected by early 2028 determining whether the official name transition proceeds.
Kalshi
If Yes wins the Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing a 'Yes' or 'No' outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the referendum's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out $1 if the referendum passes, and $0 if it fails. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Nauruan referendum are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether a majority of valid votes cast are in favor of changing the country’s official name from Nauru to Naoero. The official announcement from the Nauruan government will serve as the definitive source for determining the market’s outcome. Traders should monitor news sources for updates on the referendum results as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly move this market before its resolution. Any statements from key Nauruan political figures regarding their stance on the name change would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected economic developments or political shifts within Nauru could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, the release of any previously unavailable polling data, even if informal, could cause price adjustments. Finally, any news regarding the logistical aspects of the referendum itself – such as changes to the voting process or concerns about fairness – could also move this market.
