TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Georgia
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 20, 2027
Latest in Elections
Time left: 20d:00h:19m
Will Georgia have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
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Description
This group forecasts which US gubernatorial election in 2026 will have the closest margin of victory. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in percentage points between the top two candidates' vote shares. Runoff and multi-round elections use the final round's margin.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets are limited to a pre-defined list of states, while Polymarket considers all states with gubernatorial elections in 2026.Hero tip: Consider trading Polymarket markets on states not explicitly listed on Kalshi, as those states have a higher probability of resolving 'Yes' on Polymarket if they have the smallest margin.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the smallest margin of victory across *all* US gubernatorial elections in 2026. "This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections...that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026."
- Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' only if a *specific* listed state (e.g., Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) has the smallest margin of victory. "If Wisconsin has the smallest margin of victory among all elections...then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The winning outcome is determined by identifying which state has the smallest margin of victory among all 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of January 20, 2027. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between the first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this equals the winner's percentage minus the runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second place counts. For yes/no referenda, the margin is the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. If official results are unavailable by the deadline but at least 95% of expected votes are counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins tied to the hundredth of a percentage point, tied outcomes split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture a snapshot in time and can be influenced by sampling bias or question wording. This market, however, reflects the collective wisdom of traders who have ‘skin in the game’ – their money is at stake based on their predictions. This incentivizes more informed and nuanced assessments. While polls can indicate voter preference, this market attempts to forecast the actual closeness of the election results, potentially revealing hidden strengths or weaknesses not captured in polls.
This market resolves around Jan 20, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on which state’s gubernatorial election in 2026 has the smallest margin of victory, calculated by the difference in votes between the winning and losing candidates. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources, ensuring an objective assessment of the election results. Traders should monitor news coverage and official election results leading up to the resolution date.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major candidate announcements, shifts in polling data, significant fundraising reports, and unexpected political endorsements could all influence trader behavior. Economic events or national trends that impact voter sentiment could also play a role. Any news suggesting a particularly competitive race in a specific state, like a close primary contest or a contentious debate, would likely move the odds. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on voter preferences is crucial for understanding movements in this market.
