TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Lebanon Parliamentary?

Total volume:
$706,690
Volume 24h:
$133
333,085%
Liquidity:
$318,440
0.25%
Open interest:
$7,531
0%

Election Postponed Beyond Expiration

 - Kalshi

Election Postponed Beyond Expiration - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will the Election Postponed Beyond Expiration win the next Lebanese general election?

67%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 74¢ buys you 135 shares | Odds: 67% Total Payout: $135 | Net Profit: $35 Multiplier: 1.35x | ROI: 35% | APY: 28% 443 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Election Postponed Beyond Expiration

Trade
67%
Yes 74¢No 33¢
7¢
N/A
$8,222
0%
0%
$1,884
1y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Amal Movement

Trade
7%
Yes 11¢No 93.6¢
4.6¢
N/A
$6,601
0%
0%
$2,565
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Amal Movement (Amal)

Trade
1%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.8¢
1.3¢
$12,483
$64,079
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.5%
Yes 6.3¢No 96.7¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 4.6¢
kalshi

Lebanese Forces

Trade
16%
Yes 17¢No 92.8¢
9.8¢
N/A
$12,348
0%
0%
$2,381
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Lebanese Forces (LF)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
$13,272
$169,238
0.03%
0.04%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.4%
Yes 8.8¢No 96.3¢
Avg: 5.1¢Max: 9.8¢
kalshi

Hezbollah

Trade
1%
Yes 6.3¢No 99¢
5.3¢
N/A
$1,283
0%
0%
$394
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Hezbollah (Hezb)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$14,962
$56,501
0.15%
0.15%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.3%
Yes 3.3¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 5.3¢
kalshi

FPM

Trade
3%
Yes 9.2¢No 99.9¢
9.1¢
N/A
$430
0%
0%
$301
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$12,822
$80,534
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 4.7¢No 100¢
Avg: 9.1¢Max: 9.1¢
kalshi

Tashnag

Trade
5%
Yes 4.4¢No 99.9¢
4.3¢
N/A
$2
0%
0%
$2
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$13,493
$10,552
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 2.3¢No 100¢
Avg: 4.3¢Max: 4.3¢
kalshi

Kataeb

Trade
5%
Yes 4.4¢No 99.9¢
4.3¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Kataeb Party (Kataeb)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$14,831
$7,370
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 2.3¢No 100¢
Avg: 4.3¢Max: 4.3¢
kalshi

Marada Movement

Trade
5%
Yes 4.4¢No 99.9¢
4.3¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Marada Movement (MM)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$12,954
$8,688
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 2.3¢No 100¢
Avg: 4.3¢Max: 4.3¢
kalshi

Independence Movement

Trade
4%
Yes 4.4¢No 99.9¢
4.3¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Independence Movement (IM)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$14,806
$8,895
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 2.3¢No 100¢
Avg: 4.3¢Max: 4.3¢
kalshi

PSP

Trade
5%
Yes 4.4¢No 99.9¢
4.3¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$14,816
$55,015
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 2.3¢No 100¢
Avg: 4.3¢Max: 4.3¢
polymarket

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$14,149
$47,398
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

Dignity Movement (DM)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$14,693
$29,196
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

Mada Party (Mada)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$15,558
$28,113
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

Khatt Ahmar

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$14,675
$14,168
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$12,844
$13,771
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

Taqaddom Party

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$12,276
$11,776
0%
0%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
Total markets: 25 of 33

Intro

This market tracks which political party will win the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese general election, expected in May 2026. Currently, the consensus probability favors “Will the Election Postponed Beyond Expiration” winning with 67.0%, while “Who will win the next Lebanese general election?” sits at 16.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, prioritizing official results from the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Keep an eye on developments surrounding the potential for delays or changes to the election schedule as we approach the resolution date estimate of January 1, 2028.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets focus on individual party wins, while Polymarket focuses on the party winning the most seats overall, leading to differing resolution criteria.Hero tip: Consider the likelihood of coalition formation when trading on Polymarket. Kalshi markets require a single party to win outright.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the party with the most seats, with tiebreakers based on vote count and then alphabetical order. Primary source is the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). "This market will resolve based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if the specified party wins the election. No tiebreaker or secondary source is defined. "If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is [Party Name], then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant Lebanese electoral authority regarding the winner of the next general election. The winning party is determined by official electoral authority declaration and subsequent swearing-in, or if the inauguration date passes without a different party taking office. If a candidate or party member dies or becomes incapacitated after the election but before taking office, the market still resolves for that candidate or party. If the election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Lebanese parliamentary election. Currently, the total volume across both platforms is $706,690, with $133 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a consensus view of potential results, combining insights from diverse traders. Polymarket currently favors Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? at 0.9%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Election Postponed Beyond Expiration win the next Lebanese general election? at 67.0%. The dashboard provides a unique perspective on the evolving probabilities surrounding this important political event.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences, potentially revealing more accurate underlying beliefs. Polling data can be susceptible to biases, such as social desirability or sampling errors. The current volume of $706,690 suggests significant interest in this market, and the aggregated probabilities provide a dynamic forecast that adjusts with new information. This can be a valuable complement to traditional election analysis.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading fees, and market-specific rules can all contribute to varying probabilities. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, the liquidity and volume on each platform can influence price discovery. If one platform has significantly more trading activity, its prices might be more responsive to new information. Currently, Polymarket shows 0.9% for Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?, while Kalshi indicates 67.0% for Will the Election Postponed Beyond Expiration win the next Lebanese general election?, demonstrating these differing dynamics.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results announced by the relevant electoral authorities in Lebanon, determining the composition of the new parliament. The final outcome will be determined by which party or coalition secures the majority of seats in the Lebanese parliament following the election. The aggregated trading activity leading up to this date reflects the collective prediction of market participants.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Jan 1, 2028. Major political endorsements, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or shifts in public opinion following debates could all cause price fluctuations. Geopolitical events, such as regional conflicts or international pressure, could also influence the outcome. Additionally, any credible reports of election interference or irregularities would likely lead to substantial market movement. Monitoring news coverage and analyzing polling data will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could shift the probabilities in this market.