TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 21, 9:00 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, MSCI is estimated to release earnings on July 21, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for MSCI’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.90 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if MSCI reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.90 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If MSCI releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, MSCI is estimated to release earnings on July 21, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for MSCI’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.90 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if MSCI reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.90 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If MSCI releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst consensus often diverge because they reflect different methodologies. Analysts typically issue point estimates and ratings based on financial modeling, while this market aggregates real-money bets from thousands of traders who incorporate broader information sets, including sentiment and tail risks. When prediction market odds differ significantly from published analyst forecasts, it may signal either underappreciated risks or overconfidence in consensus views. Comparing the two provides a useful cross-check on earnings expectations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Shares representing "yes" (MSCI beats) and "no" (MSCI misses or meets) trade continuously, with prices reflecting the cumulative belief of all participants. As traders buy or sell, the odds shift to balance supply and demand. This mechanism ensures prices remain responsive to new information and participant conviction, creating a transparent, liquid benchmark for earnings expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 21, 2026, once MSCI's quarterly earnings results are publicly announced and verified. The outcome is determined by comparing reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate established at market creation. A "yes" resolution occurs if MSCI beats that consensus figure; a "no" resolution occurs if it meets or falls short. Resolution is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting, ensuring all participants have access to the same authoritative data.
Several catalysts can shift odds before resolution. Macroeconomic data affecting asset management demand—such as equity market performance, interest rate changes, or client flows—may influence expectations. MSCI guidance updates, management commentary, or peer earnings results can also reshape sentiment. Broader market volatility or shifts in index fund adoption rates may impact revenue forecasts. Additionally, any material changes to MSCI's business mix or cost structure announced before the earnings date could trigger significant repricing as traders reassess the likelihood of a beat.