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Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of July?
polymarket
limitless

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of July?

Volume:
$49,381

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down - Weekly

 - Limitless

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down - Weekly - Limitless

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 4:00 PM EST

limitless

Limitless

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down - Weekly

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
-98¢
N/A
$32,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$345

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$375

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,655
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$330

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$450

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$390

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,091
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$435

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$822
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$360

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$420

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$405

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$324
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$315

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$285

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$270

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$300

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$219
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 14

Description

This event group tracks whether Microsoft (MSFT) will close above various price thresholds on the final trading day of July 2026. The Limitless platform asks a weekly comparison question (July 2 vs June 25), while Polymarket offers 14 separate binary questions at different price levels ($270, $285, $300, $315, $330, $345, $360, $375, $390, $405, $420, $435, $450) for end-of-July settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Settlement Date Mismatch: Limitless resolves on July 2, 2026 (weekly comparison), while Polymarket resolves on the final trading day of July 2026 (end-of-month). Additionally, Limitless uses Pyth MSFT/USD as the resolution source, while Polymarket uses Yahoo Finance.Hero tip: These markets resolve on different dates and use different data sources. Limitless is a weekly directional bet (Up/Down relative to prior week), while Polymarket offers 14 absolute price-level bets at month-end. Confirm your intended settlement date and source before trading. Price movements between July 2 and July 31 could create significant divergence in outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Limitless: Weekly comparison market: resolves YES (Up) if July 2, 2026 Close > June 25, 2026 Close. Uses Pyth MSFT/USD price feed. If no trade on July 2, resolves to Down. Falls back to last valid Pyth price during regular hours, then official exchange close if Pyth fails.
  • Polymarket: 14 separate binary threshold markets: each resolves YES if final trading day of July 2026 Close > stated threshold ($270-$450 range). Uses Yahoo Finance historical prices. Falls back to last valid on-exchange trade price if official close unavailable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of July 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Microsoft (Pyth MSFT/USD) on July 2, 2026 is strictly higher than the Close price for Microsoft (Pyth MSFT/USD) on June 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The Close price for Microsoft (Pyth MSFT/USD) captured on June 25, 2026, was $352.24500. Resolution source: Pyth MSFT/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. For example, a weekly Friday market would ordinarily compare that Friday's Close price with the previous Friday's Close price, unless that previous Friday was a market holiday. In that case, it would compare against Thursday's Close price, or the next most recent trading day. If Microsoft (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session on July 2, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down". For a standard full trading session, the Close price refers to the "Close" value of the 1-minute Pyth candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective Close price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which MSFT is listed will be used to determine the Close price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting MSFT during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction, often diverging from consensus analyst price targets because markets price in tail risks, earnings surprises, and macro volatility that traditional forecasts may underweight. Analysts typically publish point estimates with wide ranges; prediction markets compress that uncertainty into binary or range-based probabilities updated continuously. This market's odds incorporate forward-looking sentiment from active traders who face direct financial consequences, whereas analyst forecasts are often backward-looking or anchored to historical models. Comparing the two reveals whether the Street is more or less bullish than market participants betting actual capital.

Polymarket and Limitless may price this market differently due to variations in liquidity depth, user demographics, fee structures, and order-flow timing. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader profiles: Polymarket may draw more retail flow, while Limitless often concentrates institutional capital. Settlement rules, minimum trade sizes, and withdrawal friction also influence marginal pricing. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms typically narrow over time, but temporary spreads persist when one venue experiences heavier buying or selling pressure on Microsoft's July outcome.

Quarterly earnings announcements, product launches, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic data releases are primary catalysts for this market. Fed policy shifts, tech sector rotation, and competitive pressures from AI rivals can drive broad repricing of Microsoft's valuation. Company guidance, cloud revenue trends, and enterprise spending cycles also influence trader positioning. Geopolitical events, cybersecurity incidents, or major M&A news could trigger sharp moves. Traders typically increase activity ahead of earnings dates and during periods of elevated market volatility, so watch for volume spikes as potential signals of shifting conviction.