Will Mamdani sign an executive order?

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of the event occurring. As more people buy contracts, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and the market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of the executive order being signed.

This market resolves around Dec 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether an executive order signed by Mamdani is publicly released between September 20, 2026, and September 26, 2026. The outcome of this market will be determined by whether such an order is officially documented and available through reliable news sources and government publications. The market will settle based on this verifiable information.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from Mamdani’s office regarding potential executive actions would be a key driver. Major policy developments or legislative changes that an executive order might address could also shift the odds. Unexpected political events, such as a shift in public pressure or a change in the political landscape, could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, credible news reports hinting at an imminent signing or a decision to delay would likely cause substantial movement in this market.