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Will the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act become law?
kalshi

Will the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act become law?

Volume:
$558,066

Before Jan 1, 2027

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 14, 2026

Closed: Jul 14, 10:15 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$200,615
N/A
N/A
$56,064
3mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

Before Jul 16, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$85,475
N/A
N/A
$55,917
3mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$84,129
N/A
N/A
$66,351
3mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$113,811
N/A
N/A
$50,749
3mo 3d
No
kalshi

Before Jul 7, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30,124
N/A
N/A
$14,497
3mo 3d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 28, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,981
N/A
N/A
$16,156
3mo 3d
No
kalshi

Before Jul 4, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,932
N/A
N/A
$16,361
3mo 3d
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether Congress will pass legislation imposing an excise tax on investment firms' ownership of single-family homes or banning such purchases before the end of 2026. On Kalshi, the probability that such a bill becomes law stands at 99.9%. Resolution will be determined by whether a bill taxing or restricting investment firm ownership of single-family residential homes is enacted into law, as confirmed by official legislative records. Watch for final congressional action before the January 1, 2027 resolution deadline.

Kalshi

Legislation must become law before the specified deadline to trigger Yes resolution. Qualifying bills impose either an excise tax on investment firm ownership of single-family homes or ban such ownership outright, including restrictions on purchasing new homes. Legislation may include asset-size thresholds for covered firms or apply only to certain property categories (such as second and third homes). Three independent resolution criteria apply with deadlines of July 1, August 1, and January 1, 2027.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders who profit only if their forecast is correct, creating strong incentive alignment. Unlike traditional polls that measure stated preferences at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information and continuously update as new legislative developments emerge. Polling averages capture public opinion but may not account for insider knowledge or shifting political momentum. Markets often diverge from polls when traders believe legislative prospects are stronger or weaker than headline sentiment suggests, making them a complementary signal for tracking this housing restriction bill's actual passage probability.

The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment becomes law by that deadline. The outcome is determined by tracking actual legislative passage through Congress and presidential signature. Until that date, traders can buy or sell positions based on their conviction about the bill's prospects. Major legislative milestones, committee votes, and political shifts between now and resolution will influence market pricing as participants update their forecasts of whether this housing policy will ultimately become law.

Key catalysts include congressional committee hearings or votes on housing restriction bills, statements from party leadership about legislative priorities, and real estate industry lobbying campaigns. Economic data on housing affordability or institutional investment trends could shift trader conviction. Election results and shifts in congressional composition directly affect passage odds. Media coverage of housing crises or corporate home-buying backlash may mobilize political support. Presidential statements endorsing or opposing such restrictions carry significant weight. Banking or financial sector developments could influence whether lawmakers prioritize this issue. Any major legislative action—introduction of a bill, floor debate, or passage votes—will trigger immediate market repricing as traders reassess the probability of law by Jan 1, 2027.