TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Will Lambda's valuation hit __ by July 31?
polymarket

Will Lambda's valuation hit __ by July 31?

Volume:
$34,850

↓$8B

 - Polymarket

↓$8B - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 4:05 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓$8B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,375
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓$7.75B

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑$12.5B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,658
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑$9B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,189
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓$6.5B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,632
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑$10B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑$15B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,967
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑$8.25B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,898
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓$7.25B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑$8.5B

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,908
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lambda's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lambda's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from many participants rather than relying on a small number of expert opinions. This market's current odds reflect the collective view of traders who have financial incentive to forecast accurately. Analyst reports on Lambda's valuation typically focus on fundamental metrics and long-term strategy, while traders here are pricing the specific probability of hitting that milestone by the deadline. Comparing the two can reveal where market participants see upside or downside risk that analysts may have overlooked or underweighted.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds for this market through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on buy and sell volume. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see represents the current probability estimate—higher prices mean traders believe Lambda is more likely to hit the valuation target by the deadline. Each trade moves the price incrementally, so liquidity and recent trading direction influence the odds you encounter. This continuous repricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest information and sentiment among active participants.

This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by whether Lambda's valuation has reached the specified milestone. The resolution is verified against credible public sources, including company announcements, funding round documentation, and reputable financial reporting. Once the deadline passes, the market will settle based on the confirmed valuation data available at that time. Traders holding winning positions receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless.

Major funding announcements, acquisition offers, or significant revenue milestones could shift trader expectations around Lambda's valuation trajectory. Broader market conditions affecting venture-backed companies—such as changes in venture capital appetite or tech sector sentiment—also influence this market's odds. Quarterly earnings reports, product launches, or executive leadership changes may trigger repricing as new information becomes available. Geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks that affect startup valuations generally could accelerate or dampen momentum toward the target. Watch for insider commentary or third-party valuations that hint at Lambda's current standing relative to the threshold.