TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 15, 9:00 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Johnson & Johnson is estimated to release earnings on July 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Johnson & Johnson’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.85 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Johnson & Johnson reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.85 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Johnson & Johnson releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Johnson & Johnson is estimated to release earnings on July 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Johnson & Johnson’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.85 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Johnson & Johnson reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.85 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Johnson & Johnson releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction markets and traditional analyst consensus often diverge because they operate on different mechanisms. Analysts publish point estimates and ratings based on fundamental research, while traders here are directly incentivized to forecast the actual outcome—putting real capital at risk. This market aggregates dispersed information from many participants, sometimes surfacing contrarian views or forward-looking signals that lag in formal analyst updates. Comparing the implied probability here to published earnings-beat rates and consensus revisions can reveal where the crowd sees edge or disagreement with the Street.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares that pay out based on the outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the market's collective belief in the probability of an earnings beat, with higher prices indicating stronger confidence. As new information emerges—earnings previews, economic data, or company guidance—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down in real time. This continuous repricing mechanism ensures the market stays responsive to fresh signals.
This market resolves around Jul 15, 2026, once Johnson & Johnson's quarterly earnings announcement is public and verified. The outcome is determined by comparing actual reported earnings per share or net income to the consensus estimate established before the announcement. If JNJ's results exceed that threshold, the market resolves to yes; otherwise, it resolves to no. Resolution is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting and official company disclosures.
Several catalysts can shift odds before resolution. Macroeconomic data—inflation, interest rates, healthcare spending trends—may alter expectations for pharmaceutical revenue and margins. Company-specific events like drug approvals, clinical trial results, or management commentary on guidance can reprrice near-term earnings outlook. Sector rotation, competitor earnings surprises, and changes to analyst consensus estimates also influence trader positioning. Additionally, any pre-announcement updates from JNJ or revisions to Street estimates in the weeks leading up to the earnings date will likely trigger trading activity and price adjustments.