TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Politics
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
polymarket

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Volume:
$386,329

March 3

 - Polymarket

March 3 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 9, 2026

Closed: Mar 3, 12:06 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

March 3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$235,906
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 4

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$94,163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 2

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$56,259
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 6

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 8

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 10

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 12

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 14

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 16

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 18

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 20

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 22

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 24

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 26

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 28

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 30

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 1

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

March 5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 7

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 9

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 11

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 13

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 15

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 17

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

March 19

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to polling averages, this market often reflects sharper, more responsive expectations about military action. While polls may lag due to sampling delays, traders react instantly to headlines, intelligence leaks, or diplomatic signals. The resulting odds can diverge noticeably — for example, showing higher or lower probability than public opinion surveys would suggest. This gap highlights how real-time betting markets capture nuances missed by traditional polling methodologies.

This market resolves around Mar 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will see the result reflected automatically once the conditions are met and publicly documented, ending all trading activity on that date.

Key signals include verified reports of cross-border strikes, escalation in rhetoric from Israeli or Lebanese officials, movements of military assets near the border, and major diplomatic developments. Each confirmed incident — even small-scale exchanges — can shift trader sentiment rapidly. Additionally, regional power moves, international mediation efforts, or unexpected political changes may affect odds as Mar 31, 2026 approaches.