Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike against an oil or gas facility, inclusive of all oil rigs, refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on the soil or within the maritime territory of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes and aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory based on a consensus of credible reporting, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.