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Will Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) beat quarterly earnings?
- Polymarket
Will Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 30, 2026
Closed: Jul 30, 9:32 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Intercontinental Exchange is estimated to release earnings on July 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Intercontinental Exchange’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.84 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Intercontinental Exchange reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.84 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Intercontinental Exchange releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Intercontinental Exchange is estimated to release earnings on July 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Intercontinental Exchange’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.84 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Intercontinental Exchange reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.84 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Intercontinental Exchange releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they operate on different timescales and incentive structures. Analysts publish consensus estimates weeks or months in advance, while this market updates in real time as traders incorporate breaking news, earnings whispers, and macroeconomic shifts. Prediction markets reward accurate bets with real money, creating strong incentives for informed traders to correct mispricings quickly. Comparing the implied probability here to published analyst consensus can reveal whether the market is pricing in higher or lower confidence in an ICE beat than the Street's formal guidance suggests.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into continuous odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—beat or miss—has a price between 0 and 100 cents, reflecting the probability traders assign to that result. As more capital flows into one side, the price adjusts automatically, incentivizing arbitrage and keeping prices aligned with new information. Traders can enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes, and the final price at resolution determines payouts.
This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, once ICE's quarterly earnings are publicly announced and verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the reported earnings per share or net income to the consensus estimate that was in effect at market creation. If the actual result exceeds the consensus figure, the beat outcome wins; otherwise, the miss outcome prevails. Resolution is confirmed once the earnings data becomes verifiable from credible public reporting and financial news sources.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before resolution. Macroeconomic data—interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and equity market swings—affect trading volumes and ICE's revenue outlook. Competitor earnings or guidance can reset sector expectations. Management commentary, analyst downgrades or upgrades, and changes to consensus estimates all influence trader positioning. Earnings whispers and pre-announcement leaks from insiders or research desks can spark sharp repricing. Additionally, broader market volatility or shifts in risk appetite may cause traders to reassess their conviction and adjust positions accordingly.