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516,586

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Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?
polymarket
limitless

Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?

Apr 3, 2026, 11:13 AM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$25,597
Volume 24h:
$110
87%
Liquidity:
$1,450
4%
Open interest:
$1,784N/A

$7.000+

all

2 markets

Limitless

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?: $7.000+

50%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 50% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 5% 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

$7.000+

Trade
50%
Yes 49.6¢No 50.4¢
98.8¢
N/A
$423
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

$7.000+

Trade
28%
Yes 88¢No 83¢
71¢
$173
$244
82%
82%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
28%
Yes 68.8¢No 66.7¢
Avg: 84.9¢Max: 98.8¢
limitless

$9.000+

Trade
52%
Yes 52.4¢No 47.6¢
94.8¢
N/A
$817
0%
0.1%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

$9.000+

Trade
22%
Yes 31¢No 95¢
26¢
$225
$841
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
22%
Yes 41.7¢No 71.3¢
Avg: 60.4¢Max: 94.8¢
limitless

$8.000+

Trade
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
99.6¢
N/A
$477
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

$8.000+

Trade
14%
Yes 27¢No 94¢
21¢
$437
$2,393
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
14%
Yes 38.5¢No 72¢
Avg: 60.3¢Max: 99.6¢
limitless

$10.000+

Trade
52%
Yes 51.9¢No 48.1¢
95.8¢
N/A
$798
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

$10.000+

Trade
4%
Yes 16¢No 97¢
13¢
$615
$19,605
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4%
Yes 34¢No 72.6¢
Avg: 54.4¢Max: 95.8¢
Total markets: 8

Description

This group of markets asks whether the average price of ground beef in the U.S. will reach specific price points ($7, $8, $9, $10) by the end of 2026. Resolution hinges on data from the St. Louis Fed, which is based on BLS CPI releases.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms utilize the same data source (St. Louis Fed's APU0000703112 series) and identical resolution criteria based on monthly averages in 2026.Primary resolution logic: St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" published by the St. Louis Fed.
  • A market resolves to 'Yes' if this price reaches or exceeds the specified threshold in *any* month of 2026.
  • Resolution occurs to the third decimal place.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No 2026 Data: If no data is released for any month of 2026 by the January 2027 CPI release, the markets will resolve based on the available data for 2026 at that time.
Timing: Markets will immediately resolve to 'Yes' upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. Otherwise, resolution will occur upon the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, such as those found in this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially incorporating more diverse information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analyst predictions can be valuable, they may be subject to biases or limited perspectives. This market allows anyone to express their view on future ground beef prices, creating a dynamic and potentially more accurate forecast. It’s important to note that prediction markets are forward-looking and can adjust rapidly to new information, unlike static analyst reports. Comparing the two can offer a more holistic view of potential price movements.

Prices on Polymarket and Limitless for this market may differ due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing interpretations of the same underlying event. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can influence price discovery; lower volume can lead to greater price volatility. The specific features and incentives offered by Polymarket and Limitless can also contribute to these discrepancies, even though both are tracking the same question about ground beef prices.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the average U.S. retail price of ground beef is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from sources like the Bureau of Labor Statistics or similar reputable organizations. The market will determine whether the price of ground beef reaches the specified threshold by that date. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about the potential outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Jan 1, 2027. Changes in cattle supply due to disease outbreaks or weather events, fluctuations in feed costs, and shifts in consumer demand are all potential catalysts. Economic indicators like inflation and overall consumer spending could also play a role, as these impact purchasing power and food prices. Geopolitical events affecting global trade and supply chains could also move the market. Any news related to major beef producers or significant changes in agricultural policy would be closely watched by traders in this market.