TOTAL VOLUME:

$143.1b

24H VOL:

$114,515,047

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,676,623,266

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,636,853,979

494,282

Markets across

37,363

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,865

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA

Science and Technology

US recession by end of 2026?

kalshi

polymarket

opinion

limitless

US recession by end of 2026?

Total volume:

$7,696,765

Volume 24h:

$15,307

99%

Liquidity:

$57,362

0.71%

Open interest:

$949,247

0.55%

US recession by end of 2026?

all

4 markets

Limitless

Opinion

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 1, 2027

US recession by end of 2026?

Amount

$

Trade on

limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 99.6¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 50% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.4% | APY: 1% 107 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

limitless

US recession by end of 2026?

50%

Yes 50¢

No 50.1¢

99.3¢

N/A

$5,642

0%

0%

N/A

3mo 2w 3d

active

opinion

US recession by end of 2026?

13%

Yes 94¢

No 94¢

88¢

N/A

$1,682,884

0%

0%

N/A

2mo 2w 2d

active

polymarket

US recession by end of 2026?

7%

1%

Yes 8¢

No 94¢

2¢

$57,362

$2,321,285

0.36%

1%

N/A

3mo 2w 2d

active

kalshi

Starts

4%

Yes 5¢

No 96¢

1¢

N/A

$3,686,955

0.19%

0.98%

$949,247

3mo 2w 2d

active

PH Consensus

5.2%

Yes 39.3¢

No 83.5¢

Avg: 47.6¢

Max: 99.3¢

Total markets: 4

Description

This event group tracks whether the United States will experience a recession by the end of 2026. Resolution depends on either two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (Q2 2025–Q4 2026) as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or an official NBER recession announcement made by the time the BEA releases its advance estimate for Q4 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All four platforms employ identical resolution criteria: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (Q2 2025–Q4 2026) or NBER recession announcement by Q4 2026 advance estimate release date.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) official recession announcements.

Core resolution logic:

Market resolves YES if seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters, where both quarters fall within Q2 2025 through Q4 2026 (inclusive).
Market resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States at any point during 2025 or 2026, provided the announcement is made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Advance estimates are considered valid for resolution; for example, if the advance estimate for Q3 2025 is negative and Q2 2025's most recent estimate is also negative, the market resolves YES immediately.
Market resolves NO if neither condition is met by the Q4 2026 advance estimate release date.
Market remains open until the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026, at which point final resolution occurs.

Edge cases & clarifications:

Advance Estimate Triggers Resolution: If the advance estimate for Q3 2025 is released as negative and Q2 2025's most recent estimate is also negative, the market resolves YES immediately upon that release, without waiting for final estimates.
Timing of NBER Announcement: An NBER recession announcement made after the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026 does not trigger YES resolution; the announcement must be made by that release date.
Revised GDP Data: If GDP data is revised after initial release, the most recent estimate available at the time of resolution determination is used; however, advance estimates are considered valid for immediate resolution.
Recession Spanning Outside 2025-2026: An NBER recession announcement is only valid for YES resolution if the recession occurred during 2025 or 2026; recessions announced after 2026 or occurring entirely before 2025 do not trigger resolution.
Consecutive Quarter Definition: The two consecutive quarters of negative growth must be sequential (e.g., Q2 and Q3, or Q3 and Q4); non-consecutive negative quarters do not trigger YES resolution.

Timing: Market remains open through the release of the BEA's advance estimate for Q4 2026 (typically released in late January 2027). Final resolution occurs upon that release or upon an NBER recession announcement, whichever comes first, provided the announcement is made by the Q4 2026 advance estimate release date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Kalshi

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the consensus view on whether the United States will experience a recession by the end of 2026, aggregating data from multiple prediction market platforms. Currently, the combined volume across these platforms is $7,696,765, with $15,142 traded in the last 24 hours. We monitor Polymarket and Kalshi to provide a comprehensive look at market sentiment. The current probability, as reflected by the combined markets, suggests a notable level of concern regarding a potential economic downturn. This allows for a broader understanding than looking at any single exchange.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and qualitative assessments, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Currently, the implied probability of a US recession by the end of 2026, as shown by this market, is around 3.0 percentage points higher than the median forecast from a survey of leading economists. This difference highlights the potential for prediction markets to provide a more accurate and timely signal of economic risk.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity levels, which can all influence price discovery. For example, Polymarket currently favors US recession by end of 2026? at 7.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will there be a recession in 2026? at 4.0%. Differences in trading fees, margin requirements, and the types of traders participating on each platform also contribute to these price discrepancies. These variations are normal and reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination of whether a recession has occurred will be based on official declarations from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the recognized authority for dating US recessions. This market’s outcome will align with the NBER’s assessment of economic activity during the specified timeframe, providing a clear and objective resolution based on established economic indicators.

Several key economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in inflation, interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, and shifts in employment data are all likely to move prices. Geopolitical shocks, such as escalating international conflicts or major supply chain disruptions, could also trigger significant market activity. Additionally, any surprising revisions to GDP growth figures or consumer confidence indices will be closely watched by traders, potentially leading to substantial shifts in the probability of a US recession by Feb 1, 2027.