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US recession by end of 2026?
Economics
kalshi
limitless
opinion
polymarket

Recession this year? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$6,237,429
Volume 24h:
$5,616
68%
Liquidity:
$26,446
29%
Open interest:
$805,551
0.14%

10% - 29%

chance

PredictionHero
US recession by end of 2026?
opinion
Starts
kalshi
US recession by end of 2026?
polymarket
Feb 2026Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 202610203040

US recession by end of 2026?

29%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 15¢ buys you 667 shares | Odds: 29% Total Payout: $667 | Net Profit: $567 Multiplier: 6.67x | ROI: 567% High Projected APY: 5,775% 169 days to resolution
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 10¢ buys you 1,000 shares | Odds: 10% Total Payout: $1,000 | Net Profit: $900 Multiplier: 10.00x | ROI: 900% High Projected APY: 6,583% 199 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 11¢ buys you 909 shares | Odds: 10% Total Payout: $909 | Net Profit: $809 Multiplier: 9.09x | ROI: 809% High Projected APY: 5,516% 199 days to resolution
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 10¢ buys you 1,000 shares | Odds: 10% Total Payout: $1,000 | Net Profit: $900 Multiplier: 10.00x | ROI: 900% High Projected APY: 6,445% 200 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Result

Description

This event group tracks whether the United States will experience a recession by the end of 2026. Resolution depends on either two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (Q2 2025–Q4 2026) as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or an official NBER recession announcement made by the time the BEA releases its advance estimate for Q4 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All four platforms employ identical resolution criteria: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (Q2 2025–Q4 2026) or NBER recession announcement by Q4 2026 advance estimate release date.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) official recession announcements.

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters, where both quarters fall within Q2 2025 through Q4 2026 (inclusive).
  • Market resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States at any point during 2025 or 2026, provided the announcement is made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
  • Advance estimates are considered valid for resolution; for example, if the advance estimate for Q3 2025 is negative and Q2 2025's most recent estimate is also negative, the market resolves YES immediately.
  • Market resolves NO if neither condition is met by the Q4 2026 advance estimate release date.
  • Market remains open until the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026, at which point final resolution occurs.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Advance Estimate Triggers Resolution: If the advance estimate for Q3 2025 is released as negative and Q2 2025's most recent estimate is also negative, the market resolves YES immediately upon that release, without waiting for final estimates.
  • Timing of NBER Announcement: An NBER recession announcement made after the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026 does not trigger YES resolution; the announcement must be made by that release date.
  • Revised GDP Data: If GDP data is revised after initial release, the most recent estimate available at the time of resolution determination is used; however, advance estimates are considered valid for immediate resolution.
  • Recession Spanning Outside 2025-2026: An NBER recession announcement is only valid for YES resolution if the recession occurred during 2025 or 2026; recessions announced after 2026 or occurring entirely before 2025 do not trigger resolution.
  • Consecutive Quarter Definition: The two consecutive quarters of negative growth must be sequential (e.g., Q2 and Q3, or Q3 and Q4); non-consecutive negative quarters do not trigger YES resolution.
Timing: Market remains open through the release of the BEA's advance estimate for Q4 2026 (typically released in late January 2027). Final resolution occurs upon that release or upon an NBER recession announcement, whichever comes first, provided the announcement is made by the Q4 2026 advance estimate release date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Kalshi

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Frequently asked questions

The Recession this year dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether a recession will occur by the end of 2026. It displays the current probability estimate, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $5,832. The market has accumulated total volume of $6,237,429, reflecting sustained trader interest in this macroeconomic outcome. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, allowing you to monitor how market sentiment shifts in response to economic data releases, Federal Reserve announcements, and other key indicators.

On Polymarket, the "US recession by end of 2026?" contract is priced as a binary outcome: traders buy or sell shares corresponding to yes or no. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The current market probability reflects the collective willingness of traders to hold positions at that price level. Shares trade continuously, and the price adjusts based on order flow and new information. Higher prices indicate stronger market conviction that a recession will occur; lower prices suggest traders view a recession as less likely. Liquidity and trading volume on this contract influence how quickly prices respond to economic news and how tight the bid-ask spread remains for traders entering or exiting positions.

The Recession this year market on Polymarket resolves on Feb 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether a recession has been officially declared or confirmed by the specified date. The outcome is determined by established economic definitions and official announcements from relevant authorities. Traders should monitor the market's terms and conditions for the exact criteria and data sources that will be used to settle the contract. The resolution date provides a clear endpoint for the prediction period, after which all positions are settled based on the final determination of whether a recession occurred within the specified timeframe.

Several key catalysts could shift recession odds on Polymarket before Feb 1, 2027. Major employment reports, inflation data, and GDP growth figures directly influence trader positioning. Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest rate changes alter recession risk perceptions. Yield curve inversions, credit market stress, and corporate earnings misses often trigger sharp repricing. Geopolitical shocks, trade policy shifts, and banking sector developments can rapidly alter macroeconomic expectations. Consumer spending reports, housing starts, and manufacturing indices provide real-time signals of economic momentum. Any unexpected economic deterioration or resilience will be reflected immediately in market prices as traders adjust their recession probability estimates in response to incoming data.

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