TOTAL VOLUME:

$146.6b

24H VOL:

$161,047,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,781,800,361

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,744,915,607

504,917

Markets across

37,612

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,946

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Core CPI MoM - October 2026
kalshi
polymarket

What will Core CPI MoM be in October 2026?

Total volume:
$5,907
Volume 24h:
$2,583
611%
Liquidity:
$4,211
21%
Open interest:
$1,264N/A

0.2%

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 17, 2026

Time left: 19d:08h:52m

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in October?

33%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 33¢ buys you 303 shares | Odds: 33% Total Payout: $303 | Net Profit: $203 Multiplier: 3.03x | ROI: 203% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 19 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.2%

Trade
33%
5%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
$543
$2,458
180%
1,835%
N/A
2w 5d 8h
active
kalshi

Above 0.2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
46¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 17h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
32.5%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
Avg: 23.5¢Max: 46¢
polymarket

0.3%

Trade
32%
1%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
$714
$884
22%
132%
N/A
2w 5d 8h
active
kalshi

Above 0.3%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 17h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
31.5%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

0.1%

Trade
20%
7%
Yes 21¢No 82¢
3¢
$589
$558
237%
277%
N/A
2w 5d 8h
active
kalshi

Above 0.1%

Trade
N/A
N/A
28¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 17h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
19.5%
Yes 21¢No 82¢
Avg: 15.5¢Max: 28¢
polymarket

0.4%

Trade
13%
3%
Yes 14¢No 88¢
2¢
$609
$861
47%
379%
N/A
2w 5d 8h
active
kalshi

Above 0.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 17h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
13%
Yes 14¢No 88¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

≤0.0%

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 6.6¢No 98.9¢
5.5¢
$633
$560
10%
40%
N/A
2w 5d 8h
active
polymarket

0.5%

Trade
2%
Yes 3.1¢No 99.7¢
2.8¢
$660
$212
41%
59%
N/A
2w 5d 8h
active
kalshi

Above 0.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 17h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.7%
Yes 3.1¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 1.9¢Max: 2.8¢
polymarket

0.6%+

Trade
0%
2%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
0.5¢
$463
$374
20%
58%
N/A
2w 5d 8h
active
kalshi

Above -0.1%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 17h
active
kalshi

Above 0.0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 17h
active
Total markets: 14

Description

This group forecasts the monthly change in the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2026. Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a measure of underlying inflation. The markets ask whether the change will fall within specific percentage ranges.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets resolve on Core *Goods* CPI, while Polymarket markets resolve on the broader Core CPI-U index, creating a significant scope difference.Hero tip: Be aware that Kalshi's markets are focused on a subset of the overall Core CPI. Trading strategies should reflect this difference.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the one-month percentage change in the Core CPI-U (all items less food and energy) as reported by the BLS, to one decimal place. Resolution source is the BLS monthly news release.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in Core *Goods* CPI. Resolution source is the BLS report, but focuses on a narrower index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in October 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in core goods CPI for October 2026, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core goods CPI is defined as commodities less food and energy commodities within the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), U.S. city average. The determining value comes from the first BLS CPI release reporting October 2026 data, used at its published precision without recalculation from index levels. Subsequent revisions, including any changes to seasonal adjustments, do not affect the resolution. Multiple outcome thresholds (ranging from above -0.1% to above 0.5%) create a tiered resolution structure, where the market resolves to Yes if the published change exceeds any of the specified thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of intelligence than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on models and economic reports, this market incorporates the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, access to information, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. Examining the spread between market prices and consensus analyst expectations can provide valuable insights into potential biases or overlooked factors influencing the Core CPI inflation rate. This market provides a real-time assessment of probabilities.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi on the Core CPI inflation market can arise due to several factors. Differences in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules can all contribute to varying prices. For example, Polymarket might attract a different class of trader than Kalshi, leading to differing interpretations of economic data and forecasts. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform—currently $5,907 overall—can influence price discovery. These factors combine to create independent price signals, even for the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Nov 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially reported Core CPI MoM figure for October 2026, as released by the relevant statistical agency. Traders will be able to see the final result and the corresponding payout structure at that time. This allows for a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, based on widely accepted economic data.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in energy prices, geopolitical events, or shifts in labor market conditions could all influence inflation expectations. Key economic data releases, such as employment reports or preliminary inflation figures, will likely trigger price movements. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could also affect trader sentiment. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the Core CPI inflation market and anticipating its final outcome.