TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
polymarket
kalshi

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state?

Total volume:
$76,246
Volume 24h:
$8,451N/A
Liquidity:
$363
71%
Open interest:
$45,436
1%

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Time left: 16d:22h:37m

Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?

49%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 54¢ buys you 185 shares | Odds: 49% Total Payout: $185 | Net Profit: $85 Multiplier: 1.85x | ROI: 85% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 16 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

Trade
49%
6%
Yes 54¢No 56¢
10¢
$363
$4,054
0%
34%
N/A
2w 2d 22h
active
kalshi

Below $4.00

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,854
N/A
N/A
$9,937
Settled
No
kalshi

Below $3.65

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,147
N/A
N/A
$5,458
Settled
No
kalshi

Below $3.95

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,233
N/A
N/A
$4,347
Settled
No
kalshi

Below $3.85

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,136
N/A
N/A
$5,166
Settled
No
kalshi

Below $3.90

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,127
N/A
N/A
$4,531
Settled
No
kalshi

Below $3.80

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,557
N/A
N/A
$4,205
Settled
No
kalshi

Below $3.60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,170
N/A
N/A
$4,523
Settled
No
kalshi

Below $3.70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,648
N/A
N/A
$4,145
Settled
No
kalshi

Below $3.75

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,354
N/A
N/A
$3,124
Settled
No
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,224
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$742
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This group of markets asks whether the average price of regular gasoline will fall below $3.75 per gallon in any US state on a specified date. Resolution depends on data reported by AAA, with Polymarket specifying a date and Kalshi offering markets across a wider timeframe with varying price thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket focuses on a single date and any state, while Kalshi markets consider the national average over a longer timeframe and offer markets with different price thresholds.Hero tip: Consider the differing scopes when trading. Polymarket markets are more sensitive to localized price drops on specific dates, while Kalshi markets are influenced by the national average over a longer period.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on whether *any* state has gas below $3.75 on a *specific* date at 11:59 PM ET. "This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures."
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on whether the *national average* gas price falls below $3.75 *at any time* within a defined period (through September 30, 2026). "If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is lower than $3.75 at any time from Issuance through Sep 30, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source. This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether the AAA-reported national average regular gas price in the U.S. falls below specified thresholds at any point from the issuance date through September 30, 2026. Multiple markets exist for different price levels, each with a distinct threshold ranging from $4.00 down to $3.60. If the price dips below any of these thresholds during the specified period, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The outcome for each market is determined solely by whether the price crosses its particular threshold at any time within the window, with no additional conditions or calculations applied.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices, such as those found in this market, often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically base their predictions on economic models and expert opinions, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, especially when dealing with complex events influenced by numerous factors. While analyst forecasts may predict a certain trend, this market reflects the collective belief of traders actively putting capital behind their expectations regarding future gas prices. It’s a real-time assessment of probability.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the average gas price in any U.S. state falls below $3.75 per gallon on that date. Data will be sourced from publicly available, widely-recognized sources tracking fuel prices nationwide. The outcome is determined by a clear and objective assessment of gas prices, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result for all participants in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 1, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions to oil supply, could cause prices to spike or fall. Changes in crude oil prices, influenced by OPEC+ decisions or global demand, will be closely watched. Unexpected economic data, like a recession or strong economic growth, could also affect gas prices. Additionally, government policies related to energy, such as tax changes or environmental regulations, could play a role. Finally, severe weather events impacting refinery operations or transportation infrastructure could create localized price fluctuations and move this market.