TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
kalshi
polymarket

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

Total volume:
$112,736
Volume 24h:
$579
46%
Liquidity:
$15,860
14%
Open interest:
$2,910
0%

Above 3.75%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.75% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 12, 2027

Will inflation in Brazil be above 3.75% in Dec 2025?

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 112 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.75%

Trade
90%
Yes 100¢No 12¢
12¢
N/A
$1,025
0%
0%
$104
3mo 3w 1d
active
kalshi

Above 3.50%

Trade
90%
Yes 100¢No 10¢
10¢
N/A
$295
0%
0%
$25
3mo 3w 1d
active
kalshi

Above 3.25%

Trade
89%
Yes 100¢No 10¢
10¢
N/A
$68
0%
0%
$41
3mo 3w 1d
active
kalshi

Above 4.00%

Trade
85%
Yes 84¢No 25¢
9¢
N/A
$3,325
0%
0%
$2,341
3mo 3w 1d
active
kalshi

Above 4.50%

Trade
45%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5
0%
0%
$5
3mo 3w 1d
active
polymarket

5.00-5.49%

Trade
41%
2%
Yes 41.9¢No 59.7¢
1.6¢
$1,086
$16,619
3%
8%
N/A
4mo 3d
active
kalshi

Above 4.75%

Trade
35%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$307
0%
0%
$5
3mo 3w 1d
active
polymarket

4.50-4.99%

Trade
34%
1%
Yes 35¢No 67.9¢
2.9¢
$1,097
$18,166
0%
5%
N/A
4mo 3d
active
kalshi

Above 5.00%

Trade
22%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7
0%
0%
$5
3mo 3w 1d
active
polymarket

5.50-5.99%

Trade
18%
Yes 18¢No 82.1¢
0.1¢
$1,515
$11,228
0.19%
4%
N/A
4mo 3d
active
kalshi

Above 5.50%

Trade
17%
Yes 30¢No 100¢
30¢
N/A
$209
0%
0%
$200
3mo 3w 1d
active
kalshi

Above 4.25%

Trade
16%
Yes 94¢No 50¢
44¢
N/A
$193
0%
0%
$179
3mo 3w 1d
active
kalshi

Above 5.25%

Trade
13%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9
0%
0%
$5
3mo 3w 1d
active
polymarket

4.00-4.49%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98.3¢
0.4¢
$1,656
$14,865
0.15%
0.86%
N/A
4mo 3d
active
polymarket

6.00-6.49%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98.4¢
0.5¢
$1,420
$7,549
0%
0.99%
N/A
4mo 3d
active
polymarket

3.50-3.99%

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.4¢
0.5¢
$1,634
$13,840
0%
0.54%
N/A
4mo 3d
active
polymarket

6.50-6.99%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.7¢
0.1¢
$1,667
$7,041
0.07%
1%
N/A
4mo 3d
active
polymarket

<3.00%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,694
$6,485
0.08%
1%
N/A
4mo 3d
active
polymarket

3.00-3.49%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$2,082
$6,367
0.08%
1%
N/A
4mo 3d
active
polymarket

7.00%+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$2,008
$5,134
0.11%
2%
N/A
4mo 3d
active
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group tracks Brazil's 12-month consumer price inflation (IPCA) as measured by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for the period ending December 2026. Polymarket offers 11 binary markets covering specific inflation bands (e.g., 4.50%-4.99%, 5.00%-5.49%) plus extreme outcomes, while Kalshi offers 10 binary markets using threshold-based logic (e.g., 'above 3.50%', 'above 5.25%'). Both platforms resolve using the official IBGE December 2026 IPCA report, scheduled for release on January 12, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses mutually exclusive range-based markets while Kalshi uses overlapping threshold-based markets. Both reference the same IBGE data source but create incompatible settlement mechanics.Hero tip: Understand your platform's structure before trading. On Polymarket, exactly one band resolves YES. On Kalshi, all thresholds below the final inflation rate resolve YES. These are not equivalent hedges. Both platforms will use the same official IBGE December 2026 IPCA report as the settlement source.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Range-based binary markets covering discrete inflation bands (3.00%-3.49%, 3.50%-3.99%, 4.00%-4.49%, 4.50%-4.99%, 5.00%-5.49%, 5.50%-5.99%, 6.00%-6.49%, 6.50%-6.99%, plus below 3.00% and at least 7.00%). Exactly one market resolves YES based on which band contains the final IPCA value reported to two decimal places. Quote: 'the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points'
  • Kalshi: Threshold-based binary markets using cumulative logic (above 3.25%, 3.50%, 3.75%, 4.00%, 4.25%, 4.50%, 4.75%, 5.00%, 5.25%, 5.50%). Multiple markets resolve YES simultaneously for any outcome; all thresholds below the final rate trigger YES. Quote: 'If the 12-month inflation rate in Brazil is above [X]% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

Kalshi

The event resolves Yes if Brazil's 12-month inflation rate in December 2026 exceeds any of the specified thresholds: 3.25%, 3.50%, 3.75%, 4.00%, 4.25%, 4.50%, 4.75%, 5.00%, 5.25%, or 5.50%. Each threshold represents a separate resolution condition, with resolution based on the actual inflation rate reported for that month.

Frequently asked questions

The Brazil Annual Inflation 2026 dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking consensus expectations for Brazil's inflation rate throughout 2026. It displays the top outcome on each platform, current implied probabilities, and cumulative trading volume of $112,736 across all linked markets. This multi-platform view lets traders monitor how professional and retail participants are pricing Brazil's inflation trajectory, revealing where market sentiment converges or diverges on key inflation bands and thresholds.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from thousands of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, often incorporating forward-looking expectations faster than traditional analyst surveys. While formal economist forecasts tend to cluster around central bank guidance, markets price tail risks and policy surprises more dynamically. The Brazil Annual Inflation 2026 market allows you to compare live implied probabilities against published analyst ranges, helping identify whether markets are pricing in hawkish or dovish scenarios relative to consensus estimates from major financial institutions.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi may define outcome bands or reference dates differently, attracting distinct trader bases with varying risk appetites and time horizons. Polymarket currently shows 41.1% on its top outcome, while Kalshi shows 90.0%, a spread of 48.9 percentage points. Differences in liquidity, user geography, fee structures, and market design can cause prices to diverge even when tracking the same underlying economic event, creating arbitrage opportunities for alert traders.

Key catalysts include Central Bank of Brazil policy decisions, currency fluctuations affecting import costs, commodity price shocks, fiscal policy announcements, and wage growth trends. Global interest rate movements, energy prices, and supply-chain disruptions also influence Brazil's inflation outlook. Monthly IPCA releases throughout 2026 will provide real-time data that traders incorporate into market prices, while unexpected political or economic developments can trigger sharp repricing across Polymarket and Kalshi simultaneously.