TOTAL VOLUME:

$149.7b

24H VOL:

$109,714,070

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,820,087,997

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,739,090,488

444,140

Markets across

34,296

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,700

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
kalshi
polymarket

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

Total volume:
$187,422
Volume 24h:
$3,746
20%
Liquidity:
$15,285
0.12%
Open interest:
$2,749
0%

Above 4.25%

 - Kalshi

Above 4.25% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 12, 2027

Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.25% in Dec 2025?

93%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 93¢ buys you 108 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $108 | Net Profit: $8 Multiplier: 1.08x | ROI: 8% | APY: 48% 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4.25%

Trade
93%
Yes 93¢No 20¢
13¢
N/A
$195
0%
0%
$181
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 3.75%

Trade
90%
Yes 99¢No 25¢
24¢
N/A
$1,025
0%
0%
$104
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 3.50%

Trade
90%
Yes 99¢No 80¢
79¢
N/A
$295
0%
0%
$25
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.00%

Trade
90%
Yes 89¢No 74¢
63¢
N/A
$3,777
0%
0%
$1,891
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 3.25%

Trade
89%
Yes 99¢No 27¢
26¢
N/A
$68
0%
0%
$41
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

5.00-5.49%

Trade
45%
15%
Yes 47.5¢No 56.9¢
4.4¢
$570
$30,004
0.86%
6%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

5.50-5.99%

Trade
33%
24%
Yes 35.1¢No 69.9¢
5¢
$980
$23,864
7%
12%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

4.50-4.99%

Trade
18%
10%
Yes 20.1¢No 84.8¢
4.9¢
$756
$34,643
2%
7%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 5.50%

Trade
17%
Yes 20¢No 100¢
20¢
N/A
$209
0%
0%
$200
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

6.00-6.49%

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4¢No 97.9¢
1.9¢
$1,635
$14,634
3%
9%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

7.00%+

Trade
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.3¢
0.6¢
$901
$11,394
3%
13%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

4.00-4.49%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
$2,102
$19,486
2%
4%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

6.50-6.99%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$2,011
$12,071
2%
5%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

3.50-3.99%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,833
$16,233
0.03%
0.34%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

<3.00%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,515
$10,024
0%
15%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

3.00-3.49%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,982
$8,872
0.06%
0.62%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Above 5.00%

Trade
22%
Yes 99¢No 100¢
99¢
N/A
$7
0%
0%
$5
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.75%

Trade
5%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$407
0%
33%
$101
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 5.25%

Trade
5%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$109
0%
1,111%
$101
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Above 4.50%

Trade
5%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$105
0%
2,000%
$100
2mo 6d
active
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group tracks Brazil's 12-month consumer price inflation (IPCA) as measured by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for the period ending December 2026. Polymarket offers 11 binary markets covering specific inflation bands (e.g., 4.50%-4.99%, 5.00%-5.49%) plus extreme outcomes, while Kalshi offers 10 binary markets using threshold-based logic (e.g., 'above 3.50%', 'above 5.25%'). Both platforms resolve using the official IBGE December 2026 IPCA report, scheduled for release on January 12, 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses mutually exclusive range-based markets while Kalshi uses overlapping threshold-based markets. Both reference the same IBGE data source but create incompatible settlement mechanics.Hero tip: Understand your platform's structure before trading. On Polymarket, exactly one band resolves YES. On Kalshi, all thresholds below the final inflation rate resolve YES. These are not equivalent hedges. Both platforms will use the same official IBGE December 2026 IPCA report as the settlement source.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Range-based binary markets covering discrete inflation bands (3.00%-3.49%, 3.50%-3.99%, 4.00%-4.49%, 4.50%-4.99%, 5.00%-5.49%, 5.50%-5.99%, 6.00%-6.49%, 6.50%-6.99%, plus below 3.00% and at least 7.00%). Exactly one market resolves YES based on which band contains the final IPCA value reported to two decimal places. Quote: 'the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points'
  • Kalshi: Threshold-based binary markets using cumulative logic (above 3.25%, 3.50%, 3.75%, 4.00%, 4.25%, 4.50%, 4.75%, 5.00%, 5.25%, 5.50%). Multiple markets resolve YES simultaneously for any outcome; all thresholds below the final rate trigger YES. Quote: 'If the 12-month inflation rate in Brazil is above [X]% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

Kalshi

The event resolves Yes if Brazil's 12-month inflation rate in December 2026 exceeds any of the specified thresholds: 3.25%, 3.50%, 3.75%, 4.00%, 4.25%, 4.50%, 4.75%, 5.00%, 5.25%, or 5.50%. Each threshold represents a separate resolution condition, with resolution based on the actual inflation rate reported for that month.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on Brazil’s annual inflation rate in 2026. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $187,422, with $3,564 traded in the last 24 hours. The Brazil inflation market aggregates data from multiple sources to provide a comprehensive look at expectations. Polymarket currently favors Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? at 45.3%, while Kalshi leans toward Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.25% in Dec 2025? at 93.0%. This allows traders to see where different markets find value and form their own informed opinions.

Prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than individual analyst predictions. This market, in particular, synthesizes diverse perspectives from traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, incorporating real-time information and expectations about economic factors influencing Brazil’s inflation. While traditional forecasts rely on models and assumptions, the prices in this market are driven by actual monetary commitments, making them a potentially valuable signal. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and biases inherent in each approach.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and the specific question formats offered on each platform. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, different fee structures or user bases might lead to varying risk appetites and trading strategies. Additionally, the available trading limits and market-making activity on each platform can influence price discovery. The differing leading outcomes—Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? on Polymarket and Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.25% in Dec 2025? on Kalshi—highlight these subtle but important distinctions in how each market processes information.

This market resolves around Jan 13, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official annual inflation rate for Brazil as reported by a recognized statistical agency. Traders will have until the resolution date to adjust their positions based on incoming economic data and evolving expectations. The final price will reflect the collective prediction of all participants in this market, providing a unique insight into future economic conditions.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Changes in Brazil’s monetary policy, such as interest rate adjustments by the Central Bank, would be closely watched. Unexpected shifts in global commodity prices, particularly oil and food, could also influence inflation expectations. Political developments within Brazil, including government spending plans and fiscal reforms, are further catalysts. Finally, macroeconomic data releases, like GDP growth and unemployment figures, will provide crucial insights into the overall economic health of Brazil and potentially shift the price of this market.