TOTAL VOLUME:

$149.7b

24H VOL:

$109,714,070

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,820,087,997

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,739,090,488

444,140

Markets across

34,296

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,700

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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How high will inflation get this year?
kalshi
opinion

How high will inflation get this year?

Total volume:
$10,298,614
Volume 24h:
$9,142,304
4,620,960%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$361,720
0.1%

At least 4.5%

 - Kalshi

At least 4.5% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 14, 2027

Inflation surge in 2026?

21%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 21.2¢ buys you 472 shares | Odds: 21% Total Payout: $472 | Net Profit: $372 Multiplier: 4.72x | ROI: 372% APY not meaningful 111 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 4.5%

Trade
21%
Yes 21.2¢No 78.9¢
0.1¢
N/A
$367,179
0.02%
0.38%
$158,252
3mo 3w
active
kalshi

At least 5%

Trade
12%
2%
Yes 12.9¢No 89.7¢
2.6¢
N/A
$117,777
0.27%
2%
$41,267
3mo 3w
active
opinion

Above 5%

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 97¢
—
N/A
$2,798,405
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
12%
Yes 8¢No 93.4¢
Avg: 2.6¢Max: 2.6¢
kalshi

At least 7.0%

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$1,987
0%
0%
$1,091
3mo 3w
active
kalshi

At least 5.5%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 98.9¢
1.3¢
N/A
$51,084
0%
0.18%
$19,349
3mo 3w
active
kalshi

At least 6.5%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$7,268
0%
3%
$3,666
3mo 3w
active
opinion

Above 6%

Trade
45%
Yes 99.3¢No 95.8¢
95.1¢
N/A
$3,306,764
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

At least 6.0%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.6¢No 98.5¢
1.1¢
N/A
$23,511
0%
4%
$8,643
3mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.5%
Yes 50.9¢No 97.2¢
Avg: 48.1¢Max: 95.1¢
opinion

Above 8%

Trade
19%
Yes 99.3¢No 96¢
95.3¢
N/A
$1,375,256
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

Above 10%

Trade
5%
Yes 99.3¢No 99.9¢
99.2¢
N/A
$1,661,468
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
opinion

Above 4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$148,700
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
opinion

Above 3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$51,505
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
Yes
kalshi

At least 4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$215,778
N/A
N/A
$58,667
3mo 3w
Yes
kalshi

At least 3.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$95,855
N/A
N/A
$40,556
3mo 3w
No
kalshi

At least 3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$76,076
N/A
N/A
$30,229
3mo 3w
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks the highest year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate expected in the United States during 2026, specifically whether it will reach or exceed 6%. Currently, the consensus probability of inflation exceeding 6% is 44.9%, as aggregated from Kalshi and Opinion. The second most probable outcome is “Inflation surge in 2026?” at 21.2%. The market will resolve based on whether year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5% in any month in 2026. Traders should watch the January 2026 CPI data release, as it will be the first full month of data available to inform the peak inflation rate for the year.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets define resolution based on reaching *any* of several thresholds, while Opinion markets ask about exceeding *single* thresholds. This creates a difference in the probability weighting of various inflation outcomes.Hero tip: Kalshi's multiple thresholds allow for more nuanced trading strategies, as a lower threshold being hit resolves the market even if higher ones are not. Opinion markets require exceeding a single, potentially higher, threshold.

Critical divergence points:

  • kalshi: Resolves YES if year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 3.0%, 3.5%, 4.0%, 4.5%, 5.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, 6.5%, or 7.0% in any month of 2026. The market resolves to Yes if *any* of these thresholds are met.
  • opinion: Presents separate binary questions for exceeding specific thresholds (3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 8%, 10%). Each question is resolved independently based on whether the CPI exceeds that threshold in any month of 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the highest year-over-year CPI inflation rate recorded in any single month during calendar year 2026. Resolution thresholds are set at 3.0%, 3.5%, 4.0%, 4.5%, 5.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, 6.5%, and 7.0%. Each threshold is inclusive, meaning if inflation reaches or exceeds that level in any month during 2026, the corresponding outcome resolves to Yes. The resolution uses official CPI data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Opinion

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the collective wisdom of traders predicting the peak level of inflation during 2024. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms exceeds $10,298,614, with $411 traded in the last 24 hours. The Kalshi currently favors Inflation surge in 2026? at 21.3%, while Opinion leans toward Above 6% at 44.9%. This allows for a comprehensive view of expectations regarding the economic outlook and potential monetary policy responses throughout the year, all within the 2024 inflation market.

Prediction market prices often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish point estimates and ranges, this market aggregates a diverse range of opinions into a single, continuously updated probability distribution. This can sometimes lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets are incentivized to be accurate and reflect real-world probabilities. Currently, the implied probability of inflation exceeding certain thresholds, as reflected in this market, may differ from consensus estimates from economic institutions. The market’s dynamic nature allows for rapid adjustments based on new information, potentially offering a more responsive forecast.

Kalshi and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Kalshi and Opinion can arise due to several factors. Different user bases, varying trading volumes, and distinct market structures all contribute to potential price divergence. Kalshi may attract a different demographic of traders with unique information or biases compared to Opinion. Additionally, the liquidity and depth of each market can influence price discovery. Even small differences in order flow can lead to noticeable price spreads, currently around 23.6. These factors create opportunities for arbitrageurs to profit from price inconsistencies across platforms.

This market resolves around Feb 14, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading reported during the calendar year 2024. The official CPI data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will serve as the definitive source for determining the final outcome of this market. Traders should monitor economic data releases leading up to the resolution date to assess potential shifts in the market’s probability distribution.

Numerous economic signals and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Key indicators like monthly CPI and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reports will be closely watched by traders. Unexpected shifts in energy prices, supply chain disruptions, or changes in Federal Reserve policy could also trigger substantial price movements. Furthermore, major geopolitical events, such as escalating conflicts or trade wars, could introduce uncertainty and volatility into the market. Stronger-than-expected employment data or revisions to previous economic figures could also influence expectations about future inflation and, consequently, the price action in this market.