TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Inflation surge in 2026?
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Intro
This market tracks whether year-over-year consumer price inflation will reach at least 5% in any single month during 2026. On Kalshi, the probability that inflation will surge to this level stands at 97.8%. Resolution is determined by the Consumer Price Index as reported by official sources, with the market settling after all 2026 monthly CPI data has been released. Watch for the monthly CPI announcements throughout 2026, as any month posting year-over-year inflation at or above 5% will trigger a Yes resolution by the February 2027 settlement date.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst consensus. While professional economists publish point forecasts and ranges, prediction markets aggregate distributed information through price discovery. Comparing the Kalshi odds to consensus estimates from the Federal Reserve, major banks, or survey-based forecasters can reveal whether traders expect inflation to exceed or undershoot mainstream expectations. This gap often signals where market participants see asymmetric risk.
On Kalshi, the How high will inflation get this year event is priced through binary or multi-outcome contracts reflecting different inflation thresholds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome currently trades at probability, indicating strong trader conviction. Prices move as new inflation data, Federal Reserve communications, or economic indicators shift expectations. Kalshi's order-book model allows traders to buy or sell shares at real-time prices, with volume concentrated around key inflation breakpoints that matter for policy and portfolio decisions.
The How high will inflation get this year market resolves on Feb 14, 2027. Resolution is determined by official inflation metrics and pre-specified thresholds established at market creation. Traders should review the exact outcome criteria on Kalshi to understand which inflation measure, reporting period, and numerical boundaries govern settlement. The clarity of these terms ensures fair and transparent resolution once the reference data is published.
Key catalysts include monthly Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index releases, Federal Reserve policy announcements and rate decisions, employment reports, wage growth data, and commodity price movements. Geopolitical shocks, supply-chain disruptions, and fiscal policy changes can also shift inflation expectations rapidly. Energy prices, housing costs, and core inflation trends are particularly sensitive. Traders monitor forward guidance from Fed officials and market-implied inflation expectations from Treasury yields to anticipate directional moves before official data confirms inflation trajectories.
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