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Will GBP/USD end Q2 2026 above 1.36?
kalshi

Will GBP/USD end Q2 2026 above 1.36?

Volume:
$2,603

1.36 or higher

 - Kalshi

1.36 or higher - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 4:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

1.36 or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,603
N/A
N/A
$2,142
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Intro

This market tracks whether the British Pound will strengthen against the US Dollar, specifically whether GBP/USD will trade above 1.36 by the end of the second quarter of 2026. On Kalshi, the probability of the exchange rate closing above that level stands at 34.0%. Resolution will be determined by the IMF's reported GBP/USD exchange rate on June 30, 2026. Watch for major UK economic data releases and Federal Reserve policy decisions in the months leading up to the June 30, 2026 resolution date, as these will be key drivers of pound-dollar dynamics.

Kalshi

If the IMF reports a GBP/USD exchange rate that is above 1.36 on June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this GBP/USD exchange rate event on Kalshi. It displays the current probability that sterling will close above 1.36 at the end of Q2 2026, along with historical price movements and market depth. You can monitor $2,603 in total group volume and $228 in 24-hour volume to gauge liquidity and recent trader interest. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, helping you spot momentum shifts and assess consensus among prediction market participants.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, marking the end of Q2 2026. Resolution is determined by the official GBP/USD exchange rate at that time, typically sourced from major forex data providers. Traders holding YES shares profit if the rate closes above 1.36; NO holders profit if it closes at or below that level. The exact settlement time and data source are specified in the contract terms. Once the reference rate is published and verified, the market settles automatically and winnings are credited to trader accounts.

Sterling strength depends on Bank of England monetary policy, UK inflation and growth data, US Federal Reserve rate decisions, and broader dollar demand. A widening UK-US interest-rate differential would support GBP/USD upside. Conversely, recession fears, Brexit-related trade friction, or safe-haven dollar flows could weigh on cable. Geopolitical shocks, energy prices, and commodity cycles also influence the pair. Traders monitor UK employment reports, CPI releases, and Fed communications for catalysts. Major political or economic surprises in either economy could trigger sharp repricing of the 1.36 threshold probability.