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Will gas hit __ by end of May?
polymarket

Will gas hit __ by end of May?

Volume:
$206,438

↑ $4.45

 - Polymarket

↑ $4.45 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 2, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑ $4.45

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$31,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4.40

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24,831
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4.50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,419
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↑ $4.35

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,423
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ $3.50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,243
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $5.00

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $4.60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,746
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ $4.70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,198
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $4.25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,582
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $4.20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,909
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $3.75

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,889
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $4.00

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,759
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↓ $4.10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,679
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks whether the average US regular gasoline price will reach specific thresholds by the end of May 2026. On Polymarket, the probability that gas hits $4.60 stands at 8.5%, while the probability it reaches $4.20 is 4.5%. Resolution will be determined by the American Automobile Association's reported average US regular gas price, considering only the first two decimal digits of the daily figure. Watch AAA's daily price updates through May 31, 2026, as any single day meeting or exceeding the target price triggers a Yes resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Will gas hit __ by end of May market is priced as a binary outcome contract reflecting trader belief in whether gas will reach the specified price threshold by May 31, 2026. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no positions; the current market price of yes shares directly translates to the implied probability. Polymarket's automated market maker mechanism ensures continuous liquidity, allowing traders to enter or exit positions at transparent, real-time prices based on accumulated order flow.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, marking the end of the prediction period for gasoline prices. Resolution is determined by whether the specified gas price threshold has been reached by that date. Traders should monitor official price data sources and market announcements as the resolution date approaches to understand which data feed or reference point will be used to settle the contract. Early clarity on resolution criteria helps traders make informed final trading decisions.

Key catalysts include OPEC production decisions, geopolitical supply disruptions, US refinery outages or maintenance, seasonal demand shifts, Federal Reserve policy and interest rate changes affecting energy markets, and crude oil price movements. Inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration, hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico, and global economic growth forecasts also influence gasoline prices. Traders monitor these factors to adjust positions; unexpected supply shocks or demand surges can rapidly shift market odds toward either outcome before May resolution.