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Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?
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Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?

Oct 16, 2026, 12:48 PM EST - Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$701
Volume 24h:
$0
100%
Liquidity:
$1,029
67%
Open interest:
$298N/A

Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

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Resolves Oct 28, 2026

Time left: 04d:06h:56m

Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?

80%chance
Amount

$

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At 80¢ buys you 125 shares | Odds: 80% Total Payout: $125 | Net Profit: $25 Multiplier: 1.25x | ROI: 25% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
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Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?

Trade
80%
2%
Yes 80¢No 21¢
1¢
$1,029
$701
0%
25%
N/A
4d 6h 56m
active
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Garmin is estimated to release earnings on October 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Garmin’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.45 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Garmin reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.45 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Garmin releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Garmin is estimated to release earnings on October 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Garmin’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.45 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Garmin reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.45 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Garmin releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for Garmin’s earnings. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing expectations as probabilities. If analysts are generally optimistic about Garmin exceeding expectations, we might see higher probabilities reflected in this market. Conversely, if analysts are cautious, the probabilities may be lower. It’s important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and this market provides a valuable, alternative data point.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Garmin will beat quarterly earnings. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of Garmin exceeding expectations, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand, and there are no external factors influencing the pricing mechanism.

This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether Garmin’s reported quarterly earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate provided by financial analysts prior to the earnings release. The official earnings report from Garmin will serve as the primary source of information for determining the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor financial news sources for updates leading up to and following the earnings announcement.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding Garmin’s sales figures, product launches, or changes in market share could influence trader sentiment. Broader economic indicators, such as overall consumer spending or the performance of the technology sector, could also play a role. Additionally, revisions to analyst estimates for Garmin’s earnings could trigger price movements. Finally, unexpected news events affecting the wearable technology industry or Garmin’s competitors could shift expectations and affect the probabilities reflected in this market.