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Which company has the best AI model end of October?
predict
polymarket

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Total volume:
$2,558,196
Volume 24h:
$104,253
16%
Liquidity:
$1,566,640
5%
Open interest:
$459,812N/A

Google

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 16d:11h:17m

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

68%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 69.2¢ buys you 145 shares | Odds: 68% Total Payout: $145 | Net Profit: $45 Multiplier: 1.45x | ROI: 45% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Google

Trade
68%
2%
Yes 69.2¢No 32.4¢
1.6¢
$29,909
$557,713
5%
24%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Google

Trade
66%
1%
Yes 67.4¢No 34.6¢
2¢
$15,074
$44,041
0%
9%
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
68.3%
Yes 68.3¢No 33.5¢
Avg: 1.8¢Max: 2¢
predict

Anthropic

Trade
30%
1%
Yes 32.6¢No 71.8¢
4.4¢
$13,887
$4,030
5%
33%
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
30%
1%
Yes 30¢No 71¢
1¢
$45,766
$555,916
3%
15%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
29.5%
Yes 31.3¢No 71.4¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 4.4¢
predict

OpenAI

Trade
1%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.9¢
2.4¢
$11,927
$616
0%
7%
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.5¢
0.2¢
$44,014
$336,675
7%
22%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.6%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 1.3¢Max: 2.4¢
predict

Meta

Trade
57%
54%
Yes 57.5¢No 42.5¢
—
$8,474
$1
0%
0%
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
polymarket

Meta

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.6¢
0.1¢
$42,956
$316,654
8%
44%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 29¢No 71.1¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

SpaceXAI

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$96,688
$287,851
2%
15%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

SpaceXAI

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Alibaba

Trade
40%
Yes 39.9¢No 60.1¢
—
$2,622
$2
0%
0%
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$45,243
$131,036
8%
13%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 20¢No 80.1¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$82,495
$86,838
0%
2%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

DeepSeek

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$75,272
$57,703
0%
10%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Z.ai

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$86,982
$56,356
0%
4%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Moonshot

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$63,021
$33,471
0%
43%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Xiaomi

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

ByteDance

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$88,542
$23,915
0%
0%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

ByteDance

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Mistral

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$68,258
$19,830
5%
11%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Mistral

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$89,359
$11,526
0%
0%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
Total markets: 25 of 42

Intro

This market tracks which company will have the highest-performing AI model as measured by the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard at the end of October 2026. Currently, the consensus probability favors Google having the best AI model, at 67.8%. This aggregated view combines data from Predict and Polymarket. The market will resolve based on the leaderboard standings as of October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, excluding models marked ‘AutoEval’. Keep an eye on the arena.ai leaderboard as we approach the November 1, 2026, resolution date estimate to see how the rankings evolve.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict utilize the same resolution source and logic for determining the best AI model based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard.Primary resolution logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the specified check time.
  • Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded from consideration.
  • Ties in rank are broken by Arena score, then alphabetically by company name.
  • If the leaderboard is unavailable, the market remains open until restored; permanent unavailability resolves to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Leaderboard Downtime: If the arena.ai leaderboard is temporarily unavailable, resolution will be delayed until it is restored. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Tie in Rank and Score: In the rare event of a tie in both rank and Arena score, the company with the alphabetically earlier name (as listed in the market group) will be considered the winner.
  • AutoEval Models: Models designated as 'AutoEval' at the check time will be disregarded, regardless of their rank or score.
Timing: October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Predict

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the aggregate view of who will have the best AI model by the end of October 2026. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $2,558,196, with $101,797 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to see a consensus view on the leading contenders in the AI space. The AI model supremacy market reflects predictions about which company's model will be considered superior based on a range of factors, including performance benchmarks and real-world applications. The dashboard provides a unified view of this evolving prediction.

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on subjective evaluations and reports, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who put their capital at risk. This creates a strong incentive for accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply varying interpretations of available data. It's common to see prediction markets outperform analyst consensus, particularly in rapidly evolving fields like artificial intelligence, where objective measurement is challenging.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The prices on Polymarket and Predict for this market may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market participation, and liquidity. Polymarket currently favors Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? at 68.4%, while Predict leans toward Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? at 66.4%. These differences can also stem from varying risk appetites and interpretations of available information regarding the progress of AI development at different companies. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform influences price discovery, leading to potential discrepancies even when assessing the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the leading AI model is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on widely accepted benchmarks and evaluations of AI model performance, as assessed by industry experts and publications. The goal is to identify the company whose model demonstrates the most advanced capabilities across a range of key metrics. This market’s resolution will reflect the consensus view on AI supremacy at that specific point in time.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major breakthroughs in AI research from any of the leading companies would likely cause shifts in probabilities. Announcements of new AI products or services, particularly those demonstrating superior performance, could also drive price movements. Regulatory changes impacting the AI industry, or significant investments in AI development, could also be catalysts. Finally, unexpected events, such as key personnel changes at leading AI firms, could introduce uncertainty and volatility into this market.