TOTAL VOLUME:

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24H VOL:

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24H TRANSACTIONS:

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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Second-best AI Lab end of October?
predict
polymarket

Second-best AI Lab end of October?

Total volume:
$61,531
Volume 24h:
$778
89%
Liquidity:
$21,844
5%
Open interest:
$6,285N/A

Anthropic

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 16d:19h:18m

Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?

63%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 65.8¢ buys you 152 shares | Odds: 63% Total Payout: $152 | Net Profit: $52 Multiplier: 1.52x | ROI: 52% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 16 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Anthropic

Trade
63%
2%
Yes 65.8¢No 40¢
5.8¢
$449
$73
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
58%
7%
Yes 62¢No 46¢
8¢
$985
$14,029
1%
21%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
58%
Yes 63.9¢No 43¢
Avg: 6.9¢Max: 8¢
polymarket

Google

Trade
25%
2%
Yes 28¢No 79¢
7¢
$3,067
$15,255
0%
8%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Google

Trade
23%
3%
Yes 26¢No 80¢
6¢
$208
$110
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
24.5%
Yes 27¢No 79.5¢
Avg: 6.5¢Max: 7¢
predict

Meta

Trade
51%
43%
Yes 99.9¢No 98.8¢
98.7¢
$2,127
$239
4,683%
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
polymarket

Meta

Trade
3%
3%
Yes 5.1¢No 99¢
4.1¢
$972
$6,385
7%
105%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.1%
Yes 52.5¢No 98.9¢
Avg: 51.4¢Max: 98.7¢
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.7¢
0.8¢
$1,012
$2,268
0%
32%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Alibaba

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.7%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 0.8¢
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.7¢
0.6¢
$519
$1,973
0%
34%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

OpenAI

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.6%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.6¢
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.7¢
0.5¢
$1,024
$2,117
0%
38%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Xiaomi

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.5¢
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.8¢
0.6¢
$589
$1,990
0%
38%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Moonshot

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.6¢Max: 0.6¢
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
0.5¢
$554
$2,062
0%
32%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Z.ai

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 0.5¢Max: 0.5¢
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
0%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.9¢
0.7¢
$708
$1,684
0%
37%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Baidu

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 0.7¢
polymarket

StepFun

Trade
0%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.6¢
—
$744
$730
0%
0%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

StepFun

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.6¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$541
$1,781
0%
21%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

DeepSeek

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.2¢Max: 0.2¢
polymarket

Thinky

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$928
$2,065
0%
28%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
predict

Thinky

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

SpaceXAI

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$896
$1,738
0%
36%
N/A
2w 2d 11h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.2%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
Total markets: 25 of 42

Description

This group of markets asks which AI lab will be ranked second overall based on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at the end of October 2026. The ranking considers 'Lab Rank' primarily, with tiebreakers based on model scores and alphabetical order. Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded from consideration.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution criteria based on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard, including the same filtering, tiebreaker rules, and exclusion of 'AutoEval' models.Primary resolution logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs

Core resolution logic:

  • Rank AI labs based on 'Lab Rank' column on the arena.ai leaderboard.
  • Exclude models marked 'AutoEval' from the ranking.
  • If Lab Rank is tied, use Arena score (including granular values) as a tiebreaker.
  • If Arena score is tied, use alphabetical order of lab names as a final tiebreaker.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Leaderboard Unavailable: If the arena.ai leaderboard is unavailable at the check time, the markets will remain open until it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the markets will resolve to 'Other'.
  • Ambiguous Ranking: If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
Timing: October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ETOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Predict

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this market tracks predictions about which AI lab will be considered the second-best by the end of October 2026. The dashboard aggregates trading volume from both platforms, currently totaling volume of $61,531 with $778 traded in the last 24 hours, to provide a consensus view of probabilities. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? at 58.0%, while Predict leans toward Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? at 62.9%. The AI lab rankings market provides a unique way to forecast developments in this rapidly evolving field.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a different kind of intelligence than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically rely on publicly available information and internal models, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to significant discrepancies, particularly in situations with high uncertainty or limited information. While analyst opinions can be valuable, the real-time price discovery in this market can offer a more dynamic and potentially accurate assessment of future outcomes, especially as new information emerges. The current volume of $61,531 suggests considerable interest in this event.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict on this market can arise due to differing user bases, trading activity, and interpretations of available information regarding AI lab performance. Polymarket may attract a different demographic of traders with unique insights compared to Predict. Furthermore, varying liquidity levels on each platform can influence price discovery. The spread between the two platforms is currently 4.9. These factors contribute to the dynamic pricing observed in this market, reflecting the collective intelligence of traders on each venue.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on widely accepted rankings of AI labs, as assessed by reputable sources in the field. The goal is to identify the lab consistently ranked second-best by the end of October 2026. This market allows traders to speculate on future developments in the AI landscape and profit from accurate predictions. The current volume indicates a strong interest in this event, with $61,531 traded so far.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major breakthroughs in AI research from any of the leading labs, such as Anthropic, DeepSeek, or others, would likely cause price shifts. Announcements of significant funding rounds, key personnel changes, or strategic partnerships could also move the market. Furthermore, the release of influential AI benchmarks and rankings will be closely watched by traders. Any news that alters perceptions of the relative capabilities of these labs has the potential to change the odds. The 24-hour volume is currently $778, demonstrating ongoing activity and sensitivity to new information.