TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 31, 10:27 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Franklin Resources is estimated to release earnings on July 31, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Franklin Resources’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.66 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Franklin Resources reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.66 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Franklin Resources releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Franklin Resources is estimated to release earnings on July 31, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Franklin Resources’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.66 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Franklin Resources reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.66 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Franklin Resources releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst consensus because they reflect real-money stakes and continuous repricing by traders responding to new data. While sell-side analysts publish earnings estimates on a fixed schedule, this market updates dynamically as traders incorporate guidance updates, macroeconomic shifts, and company-specific news. Comparing the implied probability here to the consensus earnings estimate can reveal whether the market expects Franklin Resources to outperform or underperform expectations, offering a contrarian signal when the two diverge significantly.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that sets odds based on the ratio of shares held for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares representing "yes" (BEN beats earnings) or "no" (BEN misses or meets consensus), and the price of each share reflects the collective belief in that outcome. As traders adjust their positions, the market price moves continuously, creating a real-time probability estimate that incorporates all available information and trader conviction.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, once Franklin Resources reports its quarterly earnings and the results are verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the company's reported earnings per share or net income against the consensus estimate that was in effect at the time the market was created. Traders who correctly predicted whether BEN would beat that benchmark receive their payout, while those on the losing side forfeit their stake.
Key catalysts include Franklin Resources' pre-earnings guidance, updates to analyst consensus estimates, and broader market movements affecting asset managers. Macroeconomic data—interest rate decisions, equity market volatility, and flows into active versus passive funds—can shift trader expectations for BEN's performance. Additionally, any management commentary, regulatory announcements, or competitive developments in the wealth management industry may prompt repricing. As the earnings date approaches, final analyst revisions and options market positioning often signal late shifts in this market's odds.