TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 6:16 PM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, FedEx is estimated to release earnings on October 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for FedEx’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.52 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if FedEx reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.52 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If FedEx releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, FedEx is estimated to release earnings on October 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for FedEx’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.52 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if FedEx reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.52 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If FedEx releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks on whether FedEx will beat quarterly earnings. While sportsbooks often focus on historical performance and analyst estimates, this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time sentiment from traders. This can lead to discrepancies in probabilities, as prediction markets can react more quickly to new information and less-publicly-known factors. It’s important to note that both represent probabilities of an event occurring, but they are derived from different sources and methodologies.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether FedEx’s reported earnings per share (EPS) exceed the consensus estimate of financial analysts covering the company. The official earnings report released by FedEx will serve as the definitive source for determining whether the market resolves in the affirmative or negative. Traders should monitor financial news sources for the official earnings announcement.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any revisions to analyst earnings estimates for FedEx would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected news regarding the global economy, particularly factors affecting shipping volumes or fuel costs, could also cause shifts in the market. Additionally, any company-specific announcements from FedEx, such as changes in leadership or strategic initiatives, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, broader market trends and investor risk appetite could play a role in price fluctuations within this market.