TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 21, 9:00 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Equifax is estimated to release earnings on July 21, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Equifax’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.20 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Equifax reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.20 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Equifax releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Equifax is estimated to release earnings on July 21, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Equifax’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.20 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Equifax reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.20 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Equifax releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they reflect different methodologies and incentives. Analysts publish earnings estimates based on financial models and company guidance, while prediction market traders stake real capital on outcomes, creating a financial penalty for inaccuracy. This market embeds the collective intelligence of traders who may incorporate non-public sentiment, recent guidance shifts, or macroeconomic signals faster than formal analyst revisions. Comparing the implied probability here to consensus earnings estimates can reveal where the market sees hidden risk or opportunity that Wall Street consensus has not yet priced in.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing "Yes" (Equifax beats) and "No" (Equifax misses or meets) outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome fluctuates based on order flow and the depth of liquidity available at any moment. Traders can enter or exit positions at transparent, real-time prices, and the spread between bid and ask reflects current market uncertainty around the earnings result.
This market resolves around Jul 21, 2026, once Equifax reports its quarterly earnings and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome hinges on whether reported earnings per share or other key metrics exceed the consensus estimate that was in effect at the time the market was created. Resolution is typically confirmed within hours or days of the official earnings announcement, allowing traders to settle their positions and move on to subsequent earnings cycles or related events.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before resolution. Equifax guidance updates, macroeconomic data affecting credit demand, or changes to analyst consensus estimates may prompt repricing. Broader financial sector earnings surprises, shifts in credit card delinquency trends, or regulatory announcements affecting data services could also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any company-specific news—such as executive commentary, litigation developments, or cybersecurity incidents—may alter expectations around profitability and drive trading volume and price movement.