TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

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$87,176,691

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394,660

Markets across

30,119

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2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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39%

VS.

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61%

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Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings?
polymarket
kalshi

Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings?

Volume:
$70,866

Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 5, 6:11 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,081
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $22 billion

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,744
N/A
N/A
$3,108
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $21.5 billion

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,106
N/A
N/A
$2,205
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $21 billion

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,207
N/A
N/A
$1,643
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $23 billion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,039
N/A
N/A
$7,294
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $22.5 billion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,689
N/A
N/A
$6,797
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks whether eBay will beat consensus earnings expectations in Q2 2026. Kalshi uses gross merchandise volume (GMV) thresholds as a proxy for earnings performance, while Polymarket directly measures non-GAAP EPS against the Street consensus estimate of $1.51. The markets resolve on or shortly after eBay's estimated earnings release on July 29, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure different underlying metrics (GMV vs. non-GAAP EPS) with no guaranteed correlation. Kalshi's five overlapping GMV thresholds create ambiguity about which threshold is the operative one, while Polymarket uses a single, well-defined EPS target with clear fallback logic.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with different risk profiles. Kalshi's GMV focus rewards top-line growth but ignores profitability; Polymarket's EPS focus directly measures earnings quality. Monitor eBay's margin trends and cost structure to predict divergence risk. If you see strong GMV but margin pressure, Kalshi may resolve Yes while Polymarket resolves No.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses gross merchandise volume (GMV) as proxy for earnings beat. Five overlapping thresholds ($21B–$23B) all trigger Yes resolution. Metric is top-line revenue proxy, not profitability. Key Quote: 'If eBay Inc. reports Above 21000000000.0 gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Uses non-GAAP EPS with Street consensus target of $1.51. Resolves Yes only if EPS > $1.51. Includes robust fallback hierarchy: non-GAAP EPS (primary) → SeekingAlpha non-GAAP → GAAP EPS (diluted or basic). Requires earnings release within 45 calendar days of July 29, 2026. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if eBay reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.51 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

As of market creation, eBay is estimated to release earnings on July 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for eBay’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.51 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if eBay reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.51 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If eBay releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by eBay Inc.'s reported gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026. The event contains five tiered outcomes at progressively higher dollar thresholds: above $21 billion, above $21.5 billion, above $22 billion, above $22.5 billion, and above $23 billion. Each threshold represents a distinct market outcome. Resolution depends on the company's official financial reporting for the specified quarter, with each outcome resolving Yes if the reported figure exceeds its corresponding threshold.

Frequently asked questions

The eBay earnings beat market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on whether eBay will exceed consensus earnings expectations in its next quarterly report. This market reflects real-time probability estimates from thousands of participants trading on the outcome. By tracking both venues, you gain insight into how different prediction market communities assess eBay's likelihood of delivering a positive earnings surprise. The dashboard consolidates volume and pricing data, giving you a unified view of market sentiment around this financial event.

Prediction market odds often diverge from Wall Street consensus because they incorporate real-money incentives and crowd wisdom rather than relying solely on sell-side analyst models. While traditional forecasts may lag emerging data or reflect institutional biases, this market prices in live trader conviction. Comparing the implied probability here to published analyst earnings estimates can reveal where the market sees hidden risks or opportunities. Many traders use this divergence as a signal to stress-test their own thesis on eBay's upcoming results.

Key catalysts include eBay's pre-earnings guidance, macroeconomic data affecting e-commerce spending, competitive pressures from Amazon and other platforms, and any management commentary on GMV trends or cost controls. Unexpected changes in seller activity, payment processing volumes, or advertising revenue could shift trader conviction. Broader market volatility, interest rate moves, and retail sentiment also influence how traders price the probability of an earnings beat. Watch for analyst estimate revisions and insider transactions as secondary signals of confidence heading into the announcement.