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Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?
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Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?

Volume:
$830

Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

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·

Resolved Jul 23, 2026

Closed: Jul 23, 8:17 AM EST

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Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?

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100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$830
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, Dow is estimated to release earnings on July 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Dow’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.25 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dow reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.25 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Dow releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, Dow is estimated to release earnings on July 23, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Dow’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.25 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dow reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.25 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Dow releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Dow quarterly earnings beat market dashboard displays real-time odds and trading activity for whether the Dow will exceed consensus earnings expectations in its next quarterly report. The dashboard tracks the current price, historical price movements, and 24-hour volume to help traders monitor sentiment and liquidity. This market reflects the collective forecast of traders betting on whether the index's earnings will surpass analyst estimates. Volume data and price history provide insight into how conviction has shifted as new economic data and corporate guidance emerge.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst consensus because they incorporate real-time trader positioning and forward-looking sentiment. While Wall Street analysts publish earnings estimates based on company guidance and historical trends, this market aggregates the views of traders who have financial incentive to forecast accurately. Analysts typically update forecasts quarterly or after major announcements, whereas prediction markets adjust continuously as new information surfaces. Both sources can be valuable: analysts offer detailed fundamental research, while prediction markets capture dynamic market expectations and tail-risk pricing.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader bets into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares representing each outcome, and the price of each share reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more capital flows into one side, the price adjusts accordingly. The current odds represent the marginal trader's view of the likelihood that the Dow will beat quarterly earnings, updated continuously throughout the trading day.

This market resolves around Jul 23, 2026, once the Dow's quarterly earnings results are publicly announced and verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual earnings figure to the consensus estimate at the time of the report. If the Dow's earnings exceed that benchmark, the affirmative outcome prevails; otherwise, the negative outcome is confirmed. Resolution occurs after credible public reporting has established the final earnings number and consensus baseline, ensuring all traders have access to the same verified data.

Key catalysts include macroeconomic data releases such as employment reports, inflation figures, and GDP growth, which influence corporate profit expectations. Earnings guidance from major index constituents, Federal Reserve policy announcements, and geopolitical developments can shift trader conviction about overall earnings strength. Market volatility, credit conditions, and sector-specific news also drive repricing. Additionally, revisions to analyst consensus estimates or unexpected corporate announcements from Dow components may trigger sharp moves in this market as traders reassess the likelihood of an earnings beat.