TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 10, 9:00 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Delta Air Lines is estimated to release earnings on July 10, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Delta Air Lines’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.48 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Delta Air Lines reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.48 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Delta Air Lines releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Delta Air Lines is estimated to release earnings on July 10, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Delta Air Lines’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.48 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Delta Air Lines reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.48 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Delta Air Lines releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders who profit or lose based on accuracy, creating a financial incentive to incorporate all available information. Analyst forecasts, by contrast, represent consensus estimates from equity research teams and typically focus on earnings per share and revenue guidance. This market aggregates dispersed trader knowledge into a single probability, which often diverges from published analyst consensus because traders may weigh forward guidance, macro conditions, and operational signals differently. Comparing the two can reveal where the market sees risk that traditional forecasts may underweight.
On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing "Yes" (DAL beats earnings) and "No" (DAL misses or meets consensus) outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share floats between 0 and 1 based on order flow and liquidity, with the current price directly reflecting the market's implied probability. As new earnings reports, guidance updates, or macroeconomic data emerge, traders adjust their positions, moving the price and updating the collective forecast in real time.
This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, once Delta Air Lines reports its quarterly earnings and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome hinges on whether the company's reported earnings per share or other key metric exceeds the consensus estimate established at the time of the report. Resolution occurs after the earnings announcement and any necessary clarification from official company filings or financial news sources, ensuring accuracy and fairness to all traders.
Major catalysts include Delta's forward guidance, fuel price movements, labor negotiations, and broader airline industry trends such as capacity growth and demand indicators. Macroeconomic shifts—recession fears, consumer spending data, or travel booking trends—can reshape expectations for airline profitability. Competitor earnings reports and management commentary on pricing power and cost pressures may also shift trader positioning. Closer to the earnings date, pre-announcement leaks, analyst estimate revisions, and changes in oil prices typically drive the largest repricing of this market.