TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$85,014,378
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,695,592
394,774
Markets across
30,069
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,615
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 20, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Dan Bilzerian will publicly acknowledge defeat in the 2026 FL-06 race before specified dates. A concession must involve an explicit statement recognizing loss or his opponent's victory. The outcome depends on the timing and clarity of his acknowledgment.
Kalshi
The event determines whether Dan Bilzerian concedes defeat in the 2026 FL-06 race before any of three specified deadlines: August 19, 2026, August 20, 2026, or September 1, 2026. A valid concession requires an explicit acknowledgment of defeat, such as using the word “concede,” congratulating his opponent, accepting the results, or stating he will not take office. merely suspending his campaign, making conditional statements, or conceding only partial results does not count. If Bilzerian concedes and later retracts the statement before the relevant deadline, the market still resolves as Yes. In cases of death or incapacitation, the market resolves to the last fair traded price. The earliest concession before any of the deadlines triggers a Yes outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds capture a different perspective — one driven by trader sentiment rather than traditional polling or expert opinion. While analysts may weigh campaign fundamentals, traders react instantly to breaking news, polling snapshots, and media narratives, often creating divergence or early signals of shifting public perception.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination hinges on whether specific, publicly observable conditions are met — in this case, any formal acknowledgment or widely reported acceptance of defeat by the relevant figure.
