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Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
polymarket

Will CrowdStrike's Q3 net new ARR be above?

Oct 15, 2026, 9:20 AM EST - Dec 2, 2026, 6:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,931
Volume 24h:
$0
100%
Liquidity:
$454
0.83%
Open interest:
$576N/A

$320M

 - Polymarket

$320M - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 2, 2026

Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above $320M?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 21% Low liquidity 39 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$320M

Trade
88%
Yes 98¢No 36¢
34¢
$129
$337
0%
165%
N/A
1mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

$360M

Trade
82%
Yes 87¢No 35¢
22¢
$143
$555
0%
202%
N/A
1mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

$400M

Trade
35%
Yes 40¢No 72¢
12¢
$36
$100
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

$440M

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 14¢No 98¢
12¢
$147
$939
0%
41%
N/A
1mo 1w 2d
active
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CrowdStrike's net new ARR for the third fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is CrowdStrike's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CrowdStrike's net new ARR for the third fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is CrowdStrike's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the prediction market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for CrowdStrike’s Q3 net new ARR. While analyst estimates vary, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a real-time assessment of the likelihood of exceeding the target. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probability and analyst consensus could signal differing expectations about key growth drivers or potential headwinds. It’s important to remember that analysts often publish forecasts weeks or months in advance, while this market updates continuously with new information.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on news, earnings reports, and their own analysis, creating a dynamic and efficient price discovery process. The current price shows what the collective market believes is the probability of CrowdStrike exceeding the stated ARR target.

This market resolves around Dec 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on the officially reported Q3 net new ARR figure released by CrowdStrike in their earnings statement. The market will then reflect whether that figure was above or below the specified threshold. Traders should monitor CrowdStrike’s investor relations website for the official announcement, as this will be the basis for determining the winning outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any news regarding CrowdStrike’s sales pipeline, major contract wins or losses, or changes in the competitive landscape could shift trader sentiment. Additionally, broader macroeconomic factors affecting the cybersecurity industry, such as increased spending or regulatory changes, could play a role. Finally, any updates to analyst estimates or guidance from CrowdStrike management itself will likely influence the price action in this market, as traders adjust their expectations based on new information.