TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 28, 5:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Costco Wholesale will report quarterly earnings that exceed analyst consensus expectations. On Polymarket, the probability of a beat stands at 92.5%, reflecting strong confidence in an earnings surprise. Resolution will be determined by Seekingalpha based on reported GAAP EPS compared to the Street consensus estimate of $4.92. Watch for Costco's earnings release scheduled for May 28, 2026, which will provide the actual results needed to settle this market.
Several catalysts could shift odds before May 28, 2026. Costco's pre-earnings guidance, same-store sales trends, and comparable-store growth announcements often move the market. Broader retail sector earnings surprises, consumer spending data, and inflation trends can influence expectations for COST's performance. Options market activity and implied volatility around the earnings date may signal trader positioning. Analyst estimate revisions, changes to consensus targets, and macroeconomic indicators such as employment or consumer confidence reports can also reprrice the market. Any management commentary or supply-chain updates in the weeks leading up to earnings may shift trader conviction about the likelihood of a beat.