TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 15, 9:00 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Conagra Brands is estimated to release earnings on July 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Conagra Brands’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.46 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conagra Brands reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.46 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Conagra Brands releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Conagra Brands is estimated to release earnings on July 15, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Conagra Brands’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.46 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conagra Brands reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.46 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Conagra Brands releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction markets and traditional analyst forecasts approach earnings beats differently. Analysts typically issue point estimates and ranges based on company guidance and historical trends, while this market aggregates real-money trader conviction into a single probability. Traders often incorporate late-breaking news, macro shifts, and sentiment faster than consensus revisions update. Comparing the market odds to published analyst expectations can reveal whether traders are pricing in a higher or lower beat probability than the Street consensus.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on order flow and liquidity. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The yes and no shares always sum to $1, so a price of $0.65 for yes means the market is pricing a 65% chance of a beat. As traders buy or sell shares ahead of the earnings announcement, the price moves to reflect shifting expectations, allowing you to enter or exit your position at any time before resolution.
This market resolves around Jul 15, 2026, once Conagra's quarterly earnings are publicly announced and verified. The outcome is determined by whether the company's reported earnings per share or net income exceed the consensus estimate that was in effect at the time of the announcement. Resolution is confirmed once the earnings figures are verifiable from credible public reporting and official company disclosures.
Several catalysts could shift odds before resolution. Macroeconomic data—inflation, consumer spending, retail sales—affects food company margins and demand. Conagra-specific news like supply chain updates, pricing actions, or management commentary moves the needle sharply. Competitor earnings or industry reports can reset expectations for the sector. As the earnings date approaches, pre-announcement guidance, analyst revisions, and options market positioning often accelerate price moves. Any material news about input costs or volume trends will likely trigger trading activity in this market.