TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 16, 9:00 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Citizens Financial Group is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Citizens Financial Group’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.24 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citizens Financial Group reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.24 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Citizens Financial Group releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Citizens Financial Group is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Citizens Financial Group’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.24 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citizens Financial Group reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.24 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Citizens Financial Group releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst consensus often diverge because they reflect different incentive structures. Analysts publish point estimates and ratings based on research models, while traders in this market stake real capital on binary outcomes, creating pressure to incorporate new information quickly. When prediction market odds differ materially from Wall Street consensus, it may signal that traders are pricing in data, sentiment, or risk factors that analysts have not yet fully reflected. Comparing the two can reveal where market participants see value or hidden risk relative to the professional consensus.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker mechanism where buying or selling shares directly moves the odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregate belief of all active traders about the probability of a CFG earnings beat. As new information emerges—earnings guidance, economic data, or company announcements—traders adjust their positions, shifting the market price in real time. This continuous repricing ensures the odds stay responsive to evolving expectations.
This market resolves around Jul 16, 2026, once Citizens Financial Group's quarterly earnings are publicly announced and verified. The outcome is determined by whether the company's reported earnings per share or net income exceeds the consensus estimate that was in effect at the time of the announcement. Resolution is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting, and traders' positions are settled accordingly based on the final result.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before resolution. Macroeconomic data—interest rate decisions, inflation reports, or credit market stress—directly affects bank profitability and trader expectations. CFG-specific events, such as management guidance updates, loan loss provisions, or deposit trends, can also trigger sharp repricing. Broader financial sector momentum, peer earnings surprises, and changes in Fed policy outlook will influence how traders assess Citizens Financial's earnings likelihood. Unexpected geopolitical or economic shocks may also reshape sentiment rapidly.